MARKET WRAP

Stocks started the day flat, despite better than expected retail sales and initial jobless claims, but a slow news day after that gave traders the space to buy. It was a steady grind higher throughout the day, with the SPX pushing up to its recent intraday highs and ultimately closing at a new all-time high near 6300. On the day: SPX +0.5%, QQQ +0.7%, and IWM +1.2%

It was extremely quiet in other areas, with the US10YY flat from yesterday, Gold slightly lower and oil slightly higher. The DXY was higher once again, now $98.64. The VIX dropped to 16.55 into tomorrow’s monthly expiration.

Gainers: PEP +7.5%, SHOP +5.6%, CSX +3.7%, DIS +2.2%, JPM +1.4%

Losers: ABT -8.2%, MU -2.7%, MELI -2.2%, JNJ -1.2%, TTWO -2.2%

After hours: Netflix reported a slight beat after the close, stocks is lower by about -1% after hours, well inside the expected move of 6%. IBKR is up about +4% on their earnings. SPY and QQQ are both flat.

• MRKT Call: Carter Worth joins to cover of the market reaction to yesterday’s Powell headlines. What’s next in the dollar? A look at big box retail names, gold and much more.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Dow jumps 200 points, boosted by strong earnings and U.S. economic data (CNBC)

• US Retail Sales Surge in Broad Advance, Topping Estimates (Bloomberg)

• Uber Partnering With Lucid, Nuro to Launch Robotaxis in 2026 (Bloomberg)

• US Initial Jobless Claims Decline for a Fifth Straight Week (Bloomberg)

•  TSMC profit surges 61% to record high fueled by AI chip demand (CNBC)

• Trump’s U-Turn on Nvidia Spurs Talks of Grand Bargain With China (Bloomberg)

• Kevin Warsh Says Fed Independence Is ‘Essential,’ But Limited (Bloomberg)

WHAT’S NEXT?

American Express, 3M, Consumer Sentiment and Monthly Expiry

After more decent economic data to start the morning, It wasn’t a particularly news-heavy session intraday—something that’s actually been fuel for rallies lately. With little to distract, the market’s default setting continues to lean higher, even as we’ve been stuck in a relatively tight range through much of July. Today’s move puts the SPX right back at the top of that recent 6200–6300 band heading into tomorrow’s monthly options expiration. That expiry could help clear out some of the positioning that’s kept price action pinned, possibly setting the stage for more directional movement in the days ahead. (More on that in tomorrow’s note.)

Looking to Friday, we’ll get earnings from names like American Express in the morning, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. That data point hasn’t been as much of a market mover lately as it was earlier this year, when sentiment readings were posting bigger surprises—but it’s still something to keep an eye on.

Speaking of expiry, if the SPX opens lazy tomorrow on no news, and near to the 6300 level (cash) that strike is by far the heaviest concentration of options positioning expiring tomorrow and could cause pinning late in the day, acting like a magnet.

• Friday, July 17th

  • Pre-market: AXP 3.3%, MMM 4.3%

  • 10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment

  • 4pm - Monthly Options Expiry

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Carter Worth on Retail, Market Resilience to News, and more.

Carter Worth joins Guy to cover of the market reaction to yesterday’s Powell headlines. What’s next in the dollar? A look at big box retail names, gold and much more.

• Analysis - SPX, DXY, Gold, UBER, LCID, ORCL, BABA, BDRBF, 

• SoFI Weekly Report - Beginning to see signs of tariff related inflation, plus PPI vs CPI historically, and US underperformance vs the world now over? 

• Worth Charting - WMT, TJX, and COST vs SPX

• Call of the Day: Jeffries downgrades SBUX

• Your Questions:

  • Gary Webb - CBW, Is your directional call on 10Y still lower? If so, at what point would you reverse call?

  • Situation Room - Can they take a look at Blackstone (BX). Does this breakout take us back to prior highs?

  • J Luther - I asked about bombardier a week ago it’s Still running up. I got in At 15.00 in 22 I’ve sold of 75 percent of my position is it ever going to top out?? c’mon Carter bombardier me

  • Toby - Please can we do a chart check on BABA?

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