MARKET WRAP

Equities started the last day of March (and the quarter) in deep trouble, with SPX making a new recent low. Things changed mid day to close the SPX in the green. Despite the bounce (which may have been end of the quarter window dressing) March was the worst month for stocks since 2022.

On the day: SPX/SPY +0.6%, QQQ unched, IWM -0.6%. Elsewhere, treasury yields continued their decline with the US10Y now 4.21%. Gold with new highs again, crude oil was higher as well, now above $71. Despite the positive finish for SPX, the VIX ended the day higher. Short term vols are pumped into the next few days of potential news. (more on that below).

• On today’s MRKT Call a look at how low SPX could go, a closer look at GM, and where would Dan buy TSLA stock?

• On today’s RiskReversal Pod, TSLA and politics, a look ahead at bank earnings, the CRWV ipo and more.

MRKT MATRIX: March 31, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 rallies Monday after briefly touching 6-month low to start session (CNBC)

• Goldman slashes S&P 500 2025 forecast for second time this month to lowest on Street (CNBC)

• US Bank Stocks Set for Worst Run Since Fear-Fueled 2023 Rout (Bloomberg)

• First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey (CNBC)

• Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Set to Start With All Countries (Bloomberg)

• Apple and Musk Clash Over Satellite Expansion Plans (WSJ)

• Strategy Ends Quarter With Biggest Bitcoin Purchase of Year (Bloomberg)

• Stifel trims Tesla price target, citing lower sales expectations and political risks (CNBC)

• Elon Musk says backlash against his DOGE government cuts is hurting Tesla stock (CNBC)

• Mortgage company Rocket buying Mr. Cooper in all-stock deal valued at $9.4 billion (CNBC)

• Capital One/Discover Financial: DOJ Refocuses on How Deal Would Affect Borrowers Without Credit Histories; Divided Over Strength of Case (The Capitol Forum)

• Some Large Cloud Customers Slow Down AI Spending as Prices Drop (The Information)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by MoneyLion

S&P Tracks for First Losing Quarter Since 2023

With a breach of recent lows at 5500 what’s next for the SPX? Is VIX indicating anything yet? Is 5100 in play? The flattening of the 200 day moving average and what that portends. A check-in on the Fateful 8 and CoreWeave’s ipo. A look at recent performance by sector while Goldman raises recession odds.

• Analysis - SPX, VIX, CRWV, XLE, XOM, FCX, GS, BKX, SOXX, MSFT, WMT, TSLA

• Chart of the Day - GM

• Your Questions:

  • Is the move in the 2yr yield Liz’s steepening event into a recession?

  • Why is the media so focused on autos when it should be on semis (SOXX)?

  • What about HYG breaking its 200 day?

  • At what point would Dan buy TSLA?

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What’s Next?

With today marking the end of the month and quarter, it’s difficult to gauge the true significance of today’s market’s bounce. Overnight futures had pointed to a weaker open—following a rough session in Asia—but the SPX managed to hold new lows just below 5500 and closed strong. Whether this was end-of-quarter window dressing and rebalancing or a more meaningful move remains to be seen.

From a technical standpoint, 5615 is a key level—it marked the close of the sharpest decline during this correction and has since acted as a pivot point. Today’s rally appeared to stall near that area.

Looking ahead, volatility ticked slightly higher coming out of the weekend. For the rest of the week, SPX/SPY is pricing in a 2.2% move, with several significant major macro events on the horizon. As a reminder:

• Tuesday

  • 10am - ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • 10am - JOLTS Job Openings

• Wednesday: 

  • Tariff Deadline (ongoing)

  • 8:15am - ADP Employment

  • 10am - Factory Orders

• Thursday:

  • 7:30am - Challenger Job Cuts

  • 8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims

  • 9:45am - S&P Global Composite PMI

  • 10am - ISM Services PMI

• Friday:

  • 8:30am - NFP Jobs Number

We did not get any clarity on Wednesday’s tariff deadline today and recent leaks have pointed to last minute scrambling to put out a coherent plan. If that is true, it’s unlikely that Wednesday marks an end to the story.

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