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SPX Back Near Highs On Slow and Steady Day Higher
RiskReversal Recap: October 20, 2025
RiskReversal Media
October 20, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks kicked off the week with an up open, then a steady climb from there. IT was a much less volatile session than what we saw last week and leaves the S&P 500 just shy of all time highs. On the day: SPX +1.1%, QQQ +1.3% and IWM +2%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY nudged back below 4%, now 3.98%. Gold’s rally is turning crazy, up +4% today. Oil was quiet. The VIX came in pretty hard given today’s rally and the lack on intraday volatility, a big change from last week’s action (more on that below).
Notable Gainers: AAPL +4.4%, SMCI +6.3%, EXE +5.9%, HOOD +5.7%, MRNA +5.4%, TTD +5.2%, CRM +4.6%, AMD +3.5%, MMM +2%
Notable Losers: ORCL -5%, APP -4.4%, STX -4.2%, CEG -4%, WDC-3.1%, APP -4.6%, CEG -4%, WMT -1%
After Hours: ZION which was at the center of last week’s regional banking concerns just reported and the stock is basically unched. SPY and QQQ are both up a tick after hours.
Today’s MRKT Call: Guy and Dan break down today’s rally, highlighting what’s leading and what’s lagging, along with the surprising strength of unprofitable names since April. They also discuss Dan Niles’ call for an AI-driven “melt-up” into the holidays, plus a look ahead at key earnings, recent bank results, and big pharma.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan, Guy, Danny, Vincent, and Porter dive into a packed week ahead with key earnings from Netflix, Taiwan Semi, and Tesla, plus the delayed CPI report that could stir market volatility. They discuss inflation’s structural drivers, the Fed’s next moves, housing trends, and how much the market’s direction still hinges on the AI trade.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow jumps 500 points as rally accelerates Monday on the back of Apple (CNBC)
Wall Street’s fear gauge refuses to go lower even as markets stabilize. Something has to give (CNBC)
The Warning Signs Lurking Below the Surface of a Record Market (WSJ)
Apple stock rallies following strong iPhone 17 sales in U.S. and China (CNBC)
Bitcoin rises 2.5%, retakes $111,000, leading crypto stocks higher as markets stabilize after October sell-off (Yahoo Finance)
Amazon Says Problems Still Affect AWS Service as Recovery Drags (Bloomberg)
Cleveland-Cliffs shares jump 17% as steelmaker looks into rare earths mining (CNBC)
Carlyle CEO Says Credit on ‘Worry List,’ But Sees Resilience(Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
What stood out wasn’t just the more than 1% gain in the S&P 500, but the way it happened—almost no intraday volatility, a sharp contrast to the wide swings we saw all of last week. Part of today’s relative calm can likely be traced to Friday’s expiration. A lot of the short-dated, short gamma positioning that had been amplifying last week’s intraday moves rolled off, removing a key accelerant. When implied volatility is low, expiration often opens the door to bigger swings the following week; but when vol is elevated heading in, as it was this time, the opposite can happen. That said, we haven’t flipped into a long gamma backdrop either—things wouldn’t really settle into that kind of environment until the VIX dips back below 17. For now it’s a “neutral” backdrop more or less.
Looking ahead, the rest of the week is packed with earnings. Netflix and Tesla will grab headlines, but neither is really a bellwether for the core driver of this rally—the AI trade. That story heats up next week, when the heart of the Mag7 starts to report.
Tomorrow brings results from Netflix and Texas Instruments after the close, and from Coca-Cola and GM before the open. Otherwise, it’s a pretty quiet stretch for macro catalysts until we get closer to the end of the week. One note, the expected moves into tomorrow for the names reporting have compressed a bit as volatility came in today:
Tuesday, Oct 21st
Pre-market: GM 5.7%, GE 4.9%, KO 2.5%, LMT 4.5%
After-hours: NFLX 6.8%, TXN 4.8%, ISRG 6.7%, COF 4.9%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Rise On Hopes Of Shutdown Ending
Guy and Dan break down today’s rally—what’s leading, what’s lagging. They dig into the outperformance of unprofitable companies versus profitable ones since the beginning of the rally in April, and discuss Dan Niles’ call for a potential “melt-up” into the holiday season, driven by the AI trade. Plus, a preview of this week’s key earnings, a recap of recent bank results, and a look at big pharma.
Analysis - SPX, QQQ, VIX, NVDA, ORCL, XLF, KRE, NVO
Learn more about our sponsor, Fidelity.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: What Are We Doing When The Fed Slashes Rates?
Part II of the mega-roundtable as Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins delve into the upcoming week of earnings reports and the delayed CPI release. Earnings this week include Netflix, Taiwan Semi, and Tesla. Also, inflation's structural issues, policy drivers, and the potential for the CPI to cause some market volatility. Predictions on the Fed's upcoming moves, housing market trends and potential market risks with so much dependent on the AI trade.
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