MARKET WRAP

Another steady grind higher for SPX +0.36% and QQQ +0.5%, while IWM XXX gave back some of yesterday’s gains as the US10Y edged up following its sharp move lower yesterday. TLT remains just shy of $90. Gold -0.4% and Oil -0.6% both traded lower on the day. Notable gainers included NVDA, PLTR, and JPM, while CRM, F, and NKE saw declines. After the close, Amazon reported earnings and is currently -3% after hours, with QQQ down slightly in response. The conference call yet to come. Looking ahead, tomorrow’s focus will be on the NFP Jobs Report (expected moves at the bottom of the email). On today’s MRKT Call, Dan and Guy break down the S&P, Gold, Bitcoin, and even the Super Bowl. On the RiskRevesal Pod, a look at Palantir’s extreme valuation.

MRKT MATRIX: February 6, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 is little changed after latest batch of earnings reports, jobs report ahead (CNBC)

• How stocks could react to Friday’s jobs report, according to JPMorgan traders (CNBC)

• US Jobs Will Get Marked Down, But Not as Much as Once Feared (Bloomberg)

• More Than 40,000 Federal Workers Have Resigned So Far, Short of Target (WSJ)

• Lawmakers Push to Ban DeepSeek App From U.S. Government Devices (WSJ)

• Morgan Stanley says buy the DeepSeek dip in Nvidia, calls it top pick into earnings (CNBC)

• Amazon set to pass Walmart in revenue for first time (CNBC)

• Tesla’s sales plummet across Europe (FT)

• Bank stocks pop after Fed releases ‘easier’ 2025 stress test, plans to make exam more predictable (CNBC)

• It's the long end that matters now (Peter Boockvar)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by CME Group

The Rate Ripple Effect: Banks, Bitcoin & Buying Opportunities

Guy and Dan kick things off by examining the S&P e-minis, analyzing whether upside momentum has been fading in recent weeks. They then explore why the recent pullback in Treasury yields hasn’t translated into new highs yet and discuss what’s next for the 10-year yield and TLT. Next, they break down crude oil, highlighting potential trade entry points, stops, and targets. The conversation continues with a look at gold, global central bank buying, and the rise of "Nerd Gold," followed byup. an analysis of the Bitcoin Futures chart. Viewer questions include a focus on TSLA, along with a discussion on the recent breakout in bank stocks and a quick check-in on LLY and NVO. Finally, they preview AMZN ahead of earnings—plus, a special Super Bowl segment to wrap things

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and RBC

Is PLTR The Dumbest Stock We’ve Ever Seen?

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan delve into significant market events, focusing on stocks like Amazon and Qualcomm, and analyze the decline in Apple's sales in China and its impact on companies like Qualcomm. Tesla's sales drop in key European markets is also examined as an indicator of broader economic trends. The conversation transitions to discussing the importance of the upcoming jobs report and its potential effect on interest rates, emphasizing the Trump administration's stance on lowering rates. Finally, the hosts critique Palantir's stock valuation, questioning the sustainability of its high market cap despite its promising growth stories and AI platforms. The episode concludes with a look ahead to future guest appearances and upcoming market insights.

What’s Next?

With Amazon’s earnings now in the rearview, we’re now on the back-end of earnings season. While plenty of companies have yet to report, the next major market-moving earnings catalyst is probably NVDA’s report later this month. In the meantime, all eyes turn to the upcoming trio of jobs and inflation data, starting with tomorrow’s NFP jobs report, followed by Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI. These key economic releases will likely dominate market sentiment over the next week. If there are no surprises and Treasury yields remain stable or trend lower, we could see continued low volatility and a gradual push to new highs.

The VIX currently sits at 15.50, and if it continues to decline, recent option buyers may shift to selling, adding market stability through gamma effects. Keep an eye on key round number levels in the SPX like 6100 for temporary resistance on a grind higher, then in particular the 6150-6175 zone, where stocks may encounter more significant overhead supply. On the flipside, if the jobs report or CPI disappoints—or another unexpected headline, such as renewed tariff news, shakes the tape—there’s limited support below 6000, bringing the risk of renewed volatility and choppy price action should we find ourselves below that level near term.

Expected Moves for Tomorrow’s NFP Jobs Number (with implied ranges):

• SPX: 0.7% (6025 - 6115)

• SPY: 0.7% (601.50 - 610)

• QQQ: 1.0% (523 - 533.25)

• IWM: 1.3% (225.25 - 231.25)

• TLT: 0.9% (89 - 90.75)

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