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Stocks Bounce Back Towards Highs. Intel Up on Earnings.
RiskReversal Recap: October 23, 2025
RiskReversal Media
October 23, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks put in a strong showing today, shrugging off the past week’s volatility, with the SPY and QQQ back near all-time highs, but IWM still a few percentage points behind. On the day, SPX +0.6%, QQQ +0.9% and IWM +1.3%.
Elsewhere, Gold held yesterday’s bounce and added a bit more to it today but is still lower on the week. The US10YY also bounced a bit today, back to 4.0%. Oil has seen a pretty sizable move the past two days, up +5% today and nearly +10% this week. The VIX closed 17.30.
Notable Gainers: DOW +13%, LVS +13%, HON +7%, VLO +6.9%, MPWR +6.7%, HOOD +6.2%, AMZN +1.5%, NVDA +1.2%, TSLA +1.9%
Notable Losers: SMCI -9.3%, TMUS -3.5%, VZ -3.2%, IBM -1.4%, LUV -5.7%, KMI -4.2%, BX -4.1%
After Hours: INTC is +6% on earnings. NEM and F are both slightly lower.
Today’s MRKT Call: Liz, Guy, and Dan dig into the pickup in volatility, gold’s recent moves, and oil’s reaction to new sanctions. John Butters joins to talk earnings season and earnings growth, and they close with a look at the recent slide in big PE names.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan sits down with Lemonade CEO and co-founder Daniel Schreiber to discuss Lemonade’s AI-driven approach to insurance, and how targeting younger customers positions the company for long-term growth in a rapidly evolving industry.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rebounds, making up Wednesday’s loss and then some (CNBC)
U.S. Oil Sanctions Strike at Russia’s Economic Lifeline (WSJ)
Lower mortgage rates push home sales up in September, but prices still stubbornly high (CNBC)
Wall Street Bonuses Poised for Record as Bank Profits Surge (Bloomberg)
Trump admin not negotiating equity stakes with quantum firms: Commerce official (CNBC)
OpenAI buys AI startup that built interface for Apple computers (CNBC)
Rivian to Lay Off More Than 600 Workers Amid EV Pullback (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Tomorrow brings the delayed CPI report, with the options market pricing in a slightly higher vol backdrop than a typical day with about a 0.6% expected move. Tomorrow also sees S&P PMI’s just after the open. Beyond that, next week is packed — a slew of mega-cap earnings along with the FOMC meeting, meaning the next five trading days could easily define the market’s next leg.
As Liz pointed out on today’s MRKT Call, the past week saw a clear pullback in risk appetite among high-beta and momentum names. That seemed to start with the tariff tantrum two Fridays ago, which may have rattled some confidence in the frothier corners of portfolios, including crypto. But today’s move higher underscored that investors haven’t abandoned the mega-caps driving the bulk of this year’s rally. Charts for NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL look less like rotations out of leadership and more like consolidations heading into earnings.
It’s also worth watching IWM as it tries to regain momentum near its highs. This recent bout of volatility to see if it was just a short-term shakeout of weaker hands We’ll have a much clearer picture by late next week. For now, tomorrow’s CPI is a bit of a wild card given the government shutdown.
Friday, October 24th
Pre-market: PG 2.7%
8:30am: CPI (0.4, 3.1)
9:45am: S&P PMI - Manufacturing(52), Services (53.5)
10am: UoM Consumer Sentiment (55)
SPX expected move: 0.6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Something's Gotta Give...
Liz joins Guy and Dan to break down the recent volatility and what the adjustment in high beta could mean for the broader market. They hit on gold’s correction, oil’s move on new sanctions, and how energy stocks are responding. John Butters stops by to talk earnings season expectations, and the crew wraps up with a look at the weakness in the big PE stocks.
SoFi Weekly - Relationship problems: real yields vs equity valuations.
John Butters / FactSet - Earnings growth estimates for this season, broken down by sector, and looking ahead to 2026 estimates.
Analysis - SPX, Gold, XLU, TSLA, T, SLB, VLO, NVDA, BABA, KKR, BX, APO,
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Built for the AI Boom - Lemonade Is Racing Ahead of Old Insurance with CEO Daniel Schreiber
Dan Nathan hosts Daniel Schreiber, CEO and co-founder of Lemonade, on the Risk Reversal Podcast. Schreiber shares his journey from law to entrepreneurship, ultimately founding Lemonade alongside Shai Wininger. Schreiber elaborates on Lemonade's unique approach to the insurance industry, leveraging AI to streamline operations, improve underwriting, and reduce costs. Highlighting the company's growth and success, Schreiber emphasizes the strategic importance of acquiring young customers and the immense potential within the insurance market. He also touches on the significant role of AI in transforming the industry and discusses the broader implications of AI for the future.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
