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Stocks Close Rate Cut Week at New Highs
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Sept 19th
RiskReversal Media
September 19, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks ended the week on a high note amidst low intraday volatility. SPX opened today’s expiration Friday near the 6650 strike and hovered around there for most of the day before a late rally took it to a new all-time high at 6665. Small caps did pull back slightly from yesterday’s surge, but not by much. All in all it was a nice week for equities, shrugging off a bit of a bounce in yields following the Fed rate cut on Wednesday, with SPX adding about +1.2%. On the day: SPX +0.5%, QQQ +0.7%, and IWM -0.8%.
Elsewhere, the story was the same in yields today, with another slight uptick beyond the 2YY. The US10YY finished the week at 4.13% up from 4% on Wednesday. The dollar has rallied a bit since Wednesday with DXY now $97.66. The VIX closed the week higher, now 15.50. Gold was higher today and back near highs. Oil wad down today but seems to be just bouncing around in the low to mid 60’s lately, now $62.69.
Notable Gainers: AAPL +3.2%, MSFT +1.5%, JNJ +1.3%, APP +4.9%, PLTR +3.9%, AMGN +3.5%
Notable Losers: MU -3.8%, INTC -3.2%, CVX -1.7%, NKE -1.6%, WMT -1.3% DIS -1.2%, DG -4.5%, HUM -4.5%, DXCM -11%, LEN -4.3%, FDX +2.3%
After hours: SPY is down slightly, QQQ up slightly, possibly with some after hours expiry effects happening there.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan Nathan and Guy Adami sit down with Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer to discuss her career path, key economic events, and insights on the Fed, consumer behavior, and the resilience of the U.S. and global economies.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow notches fresh record, S&P heads for big gains this week following Fed rate cut (CNBC)
Markets will focus on inflation report next week to judge if Fed is making the right move by cutting rates (CNBC)
Should Stock Investors Look Beyond the Tech Giants? (Goldman Sachs)
Google Searches for ‘Help With Mortgage’ Haven’t Been This High Since 2009 (Realtor)
Elon Musk’s xAI raising $10 billion at $200 billion valuation: sources (CNBC)
Trump Says U.S. and China Approve TikTok Deal After Call With Xi (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
For the week, the SPX gained about +1.2% from last Friday’s close in what was largely a steady grind higher, interrupted only by a few hours of volatility following the FOMC rate cut. The move higher was across sectors and market cap sizes, reflecting some broadening out of the rally.
Looking Ahead
Volatility told a more nuanced story. While the VIX dipped after the Fed’s decision, implied vols are higher now than last week, (albeit from very low levels), despite a grind higher in the major indices. That shift could simply reflect the 30-day window starting to capture upcoming labor market data, but it’s worth watching whether we begin to see more “stocks up / vols up” days—often a hallmark of euphoric investor behavior. That dynamic could be especially impactful if IWM manages a decisive breakout here. That could fuel some parabolic action, gamma squeezes, and aggressive upside call activity in smaller names.
On the flip side, if this rally is closer to exhaustion, small pullbacks are unlikely to rattle markets or vols in the near term. The 6500 level in SPX is the first area of support, with heavier positioning around 6000 offering a deeper safety net into year end. Resistance from the options market remains light, with the 100 strike increments in SPX the only thing of note, where a grind higher often pauses for a few days. There’s not a ton of significant overhead supply until 7000.
With today’s expiration clearing some near-term vol dampening, next week could bring larger day to day swings. We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of next week’s catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Never Doubt the American Consumer
In this episode of the Risk Reversal podcast, hosts Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, to discuss her career and economic insights. Meyer shares her journey from Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis to her current role at MasterCard. She reflects on key economic events, the housing market collapse, and the impact of the pandemic. The conversation covers the Federal Reserve’s policies, consumer behavior, the influence of tariffs, and the resilience of the U.S. and global economies. Meyer emphasizes the importance of understanding behavioral economics and real-time data in navigating economic changes and predicting future trends.
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