MARKET WRAP

Stocks extended Friday’s bounce on hopes for an end to the government shutdown, with more gains today as those deals come into clearer view. Big-cap tech and the Nasdaq led the way, with the only sectors like staples and real estate left in the red. On the day, SPX +1.5%, QQQ +2.2% and IWM +0.9%.

Elsewhere, the US10YY slightly higher, now 4.12%. The bond market will be closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. Gold with a big bounce from the 4k level, up nearly +3% today. BTC also trying to bounce, now 105k. DXY remained near 99.60. The VIX came in once today’s move was confirmed, but it remains somewhat elevated for a market back near its highs, now 17.60.

Notable Gainers: PLTR +8.9%, WDC +6.8%, MU +6.5%, NEM +6.3%, NVDA +6%, HOOD +5.1%, LLY +4.8%, GOOGL +4%

Notable Losers: PG -1.2%, HUM -5.2%, UPS -3.4%, FDX -3%, NKE -1%

After Hours: Not a huge move in CRWV on earnings as of yet, -1.3%, conference call to come. Quantum story stock RGTI similar, -1.8%.

Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy unpack the shutdown deal rally, Bitcoin’s weakness, wild moves in chip stocks, and sector performance, with Carter joining to put the market’s run since April in historical context before previewing key upcoming earnings.

Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan welcomes Deirdre Bosa to break down the shifting tech and AI landscape, with emerging competition between Nvidia, Google, AMD, and OpenAI. Then, Shannon Murphy of iConnections joins Dan and Guy to discuss behavioral finance, the rise of AI in capital allocation, and how investor flows are adapting to global market shifts.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Dow closes up nearly 400 points, Nasdaq rebounds 2% with end to shutdown in sight (CNBC)

• Republicans Seek Swift Approval of Deal to Reopen Government (NYTimes)

• Are S&P 500 Companies Citing Impact from the Government Shutdown on Q3 Earnings Calls? (FactSet)

• The S&P 500 could reach 7,500 in 2026, UBS says (CNBC)Silver Prices Just Had One of Their Best Days of the Year (WSJ)

• The Year’s Hottest Crypto Trade Is Crumbling (WSJ)

• Data Centers in Nvidia’s Hometown Stand Empty Awaiting Power (Bloomberg)

• Perplexity Is AI’s New Pit Bull (Bloomberg)

WHAT’S NEXT?

The gap higher this looked a little shaky early in that there were moments where it was almost entirely big cap tech driven with many other sectors either red or flirting to go that way, but by the second half of the day, buyers drove almost everything higher. The bounce from midday Friday is about +3% in SPX and about +4% in QQQ. Pretty remarkable as that puts both less than 2% from their all time highs. Quite a reversal in sentiment in two days. Implied volatility eased further today, with the VIX closing below 18. Though that remains somewhat elevated — as it should, a reflection of two-way volatility over the past two weeks.

Looking ahead, if we continue higher from here, the 7000 level on the SPX remains an area of heavy overhead supply, still acting as a potential battleground to any further upside. But downside volatility like we just saw often acts as a catapult higher, as we’ve just seen.

Outside of the 7000 SPX level there isn’t a ton elsewhere to slow the market down in either direction, and with the Megacap tech stocks seemingly all moving in unison the past week, that day to day volatility is likely to remain, also justifying the VIX to remain somehwat bid, even after this bounce. One thing that could shift dynamics is a wave of option selling into Thanksgiving as traders unwind protection bought during last week’s volatility spike. But two things likely prevent that, the first is we’re now likely to get a condensed calendar of delayed economic data in the weeks ahead. The second is NVDA’s upcoming earnings. That’s likely to keep volatility bid, both in options and actual day to day market moves.

For tomorrow:

• Tuesday, Nov 10th

  • Pre-market: SE 10%

  • 8:30am - ADP monthly employment change

  • After-hours: BYND 32%, OKLO 13%

  • Fed Speak: Barr

• SPX Expected Move: 0.5%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: A Government Shutdown End Is In Sight

Dan and Guy break down the rally since midday Friday and debate whether the potential end of the shutdown justifies it. They dig into Bitcoin’s continued struggle to bounce and how the crypto-tied treasury stocks have been trading. The guys run through sector performance over the past few days — from tech and banks to private equity, retail, and housing. Carter joins to talk about the wild moves in SNDK, MU, and WDC, plus a look at where the lack of declines in this rally stack historically. They wrap with a preview of earnings from CRWV, CSCO, AMAT, and DIS.

Carter’s Money in Motion: focuses on how long we’ve gone without a -5% pullback (148 sessions) and where that stands historically, vs the magnitude of this move historically. 

Analysis - SPX, IWM, QQQ, TLT, Gold, BTC, HD, TJX, SNDK, WDC, MU, CRWV, CSCO, AMAT, DIS, LOW, COST, UPS

Learn more about our sponsor, Fidelity.

Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: AI Arms Race: Capital Flows & Billion-Dollar Bluffs with CNBC's Deirdre Bosa

Dan Nathan and Deirdre Bosa discuss recent developments in the tech and AI sectors on the Risk Reversal podcast. Deirdre returns after a three-month maternity leave to a significantly changed market landscape, with the NASDAQ up 14% and the S&P 500 up 10%. The conversation focuses on the rapid growth and potential bubbles in the AI market, including emerging threats from Chinese AI models and the competition between leading tech companies like Nvidia, Google, AMD, and OpenAI. They also explore specific deals, such as Apple's new arrangement with Google to power Siri and Snap's collaboration with Perplexity. The episode touches on the economic impact of AI, the ongoing US-China AI race, and investor sentiments. The upcoming challenges and opportunities in the AI sector, both in the US and China, are considered in-depth, alongside broader market implications.

After the break, Dan and Guy are joined by Shannon Murphy, Head of Research at iConnections. Shannon shares her journey from academia to Wall Street, and eventually to iConnections, discussing her unique background in theology and its impact on her approach to behavioral finance. The conversation delves into the iConnections platform, which facilitates connections between asset allocators and capital seekers through innovative technologies, including AI. Shannon provides insights into the significant capital flows observed within the platform, driven by evolving market conditions and strategies. The episode also highlights the platform’s global reach and growing interest in diverse investment opportunities across various regions.

Learn more about our sponsor CME Group and iConnections.

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