MARKET WRAP

What a difference a few days makes. We’re heading into Thanksgiving with an entirely different tone in equities from last week with volatility crushed after a multi-day rally off Friday’s lows and even some euphoria beginning to surface. Wild stuff. On the day: SPX +0.7%, QQQ +0.9% and IWM +0.8%. There was a very quick bit of selling into the close that the market from finishing on the highs of the day.

Elsewhere, the US10YY is now officially below 4.0%, closing at 3.99%. Gold was a bit higher, as was oil. DXY is $99.60. The VIX is now 17.20.

Notable Moves: Once again nearly every sector was higher today with the exception of Healthcare. Of note within the Mag7+, NVDA was higher while GOOGL was lower. But AVGO kept its recent streak going, adding another +3% today.

Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan, Guy, and Danny break down shifting market leadership—from AI and the “Mag Seven” to energy, healthcare, private credit, and crypto—while weighing Fed policy, geopolitical pressures, and even a few NFL picks.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Stocks rise ahead of Thanksgiving holiday, building on strong gains for the week (CNBC)

• US Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level Since Mid-April (Bloomberg)

• CFRA longtime strategist Sam Stovall sees S&P 500 hitting 7,400 next year (CNBC)

• JPMorgan gives bullish 2026 outlook. Why it thinks S&P 500 8,000 is in play (CNBC)

• Apple iPhone shipments to beat Samsung for the first time in 14 years, report says (CNBC)

• MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce (CNBC)

• Americans Brace for Thanksgiving Rush in Test of Airspace (Bloomberg)

• 31 Things to Watch, Read, Stream and Bicker About During the Holidays (WSJ)

WHAT’S NEXT?

Nvidia managed to close green today while Alphabet finally took a breather. NVDA is now up on the week and about +6% off yesterday’s lows; it hasn’t broken that month-long downtrend, but it’s right on it. Whether this is just seller NVDA fatigue or the start of a real turn back toward the highs remains to be seen but one would think that matters if GOOGL’s parabolic run is starting to get stretched. As Peter Boockvar put it yesterday, the market is shifting from “GenAI as one big trade” to trying to separate winners from losers on each new development in the space. These megacaps may start trading more like individual stories again, with some getting hit over a few weeks while others go vertical.

Elsewhere, IWM has now ripped nearly +9% since Friday morning, still riding that absurd swing in rate-cut probabilities—from 30% to 80% in a week. In hindsight, 90% was dumb, 30% was dumb, and 80% is probably too high again. But it’s been the fuel for the sentiment reversal we’ve seen over the past few days. It also may now be setting up the possibility of a “sell the news” moment once we actually get to the December FOMC rate cut. We’ll see.

For tomorrow, Happy Thanksgiving! 

Then on Friday, markets close early and there isn’t any economic data or earnings of note for that day. The market is pricing about a 0.4% move for Friday.

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch the Latest RiskReversal Podcast: How US-China Tensions May Sink the Tech Boom

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Danny Moses to discuss various market trends and investment strategies. The discussion spans topics such as AI's impact on the market, the performance of key sectors like healthcare, energy, and technology, and the challenges posed by economic indicators and geopolitical factors. They delve into the volatility and potential reshuffling within 'The Magnificent Seven' tech stocks and the implications for the broader market. The episode also highlights the private credit market's sketchy valuations, the Federal Reserve's position on potential rate cuts, and the dynamics within the cryptocurrencies market, including Bitcoin and its associated treasury companies. Finally, they touch on their favorite NFL picks for the week's slate.

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