- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Stocks Don't Mind Flying Blind as Shutdown Begins
Stocks Don't Mind Flying Blind as Shutdown Begins
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, Oct 1st
RiskReversal Media
October 01, 2025
MARKET WRAP
SPX opened lower but quickly found buyers, rallying nearly +1% from its early lows (at one point) to close +0.3% on the day. The narrative on the down open was around the government shutdown, but it may have been more related to a hangover from some end of quarter markups into the close yesterday. Clearly traders looked to start the new quarter on an equally positive note, and equities may have been helped by treasury yields pulling back. On the day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ +0.5% and IWM +0.2%
Elsewhere, treasury yields may have begun to move lower again, with the US10YY now 4.10%. Something to watch if rate sensitive small caps begin to react to that. Gold was higher once again. DXY was unched. Oil has now completely round-tripped its spike of the past two weeks that took it over $66, now back below $62. The VIX was unchanged despite stocks being higher.
Notable Gainers: AZN +10%, MU +8.3%, DDOG +8%, INTC +7%, AMAT +6.2%, AMGN +5.2%, KLAC +5%, NKE +6%
Notable Losers: MELI -6.7%, TEAM -6.3%, WDAY -3.5%, NWS -5.9%, HD -1.9%, JPM -1.5%
After hours: SPY and QQQ both down a tick from the close.
MRKT Call: Guy and Dan discuss the shutdown and the market’s muted reaction, recent moves lower in big banks, NVDA’s new highs, hard drive stocks like WDC, TSLA after tax credits, drug stocks, gold’s rally, and FactSet’s coverage of EPS estimates.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rises to new record, reversing earlier losses as traders bet on short-lived shutdown (CNBC)
Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks (CNBC)
Trump Plans to Use Shutdown to Fire Federal Workers This Week (Bloomberg)
Leon Cooperman says we’ve reached the stage of the bull market that Warren Buffett warned about (CNBC)
Intel in early talks to add AMD as foundry customer (Semafor)
How long can Nvidia stay ahead of Chinese competition? (FT)
Supreme Court blocks Trump from immediately firing Fed’s Lisa Cook(FT)
WHAT’S NEXT?
While the federal government shutdown officially began today, markets showed little concern, with the morning weakness likely tied as much to end-of-quarter markups into yesterday’s close as to the shutdown itself. Implied volatility for this week’s now-unlikely NFP jobs report actually declined, suggesting traders view the absence of data as less risky than a potentially disruptive release. For now, markets continue to shrug off the shutdown, though a prolonged delay in data and government payments could eventually test that calm.
Regarding upcoming economic data, the general rule during the shutdown is that any reports from government agencies such as the BLS, Labor Department, Census Bureau, BEA, etc. will be paused. However, private-sector data—like today’s ADP report or tomorrow’s Challenger release—will continue as usual, along with Federal Reserve reports, since the Fed operates independently of the federal budget. For tomorrow that means no jobless claims or factory orders:
Thursday, October 2nd
7:30am - Challenger Job Cuts
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
10am - Factory Orders
10:30am - Fed Logan Speech
Late: BoJ Ueda Speech
The expected move for tomorrow in SPX is just 0.4% with extremely low 9 at the money IV.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s latest episode: Why Bad News Isn’t Stopping This Market
Guy and Dan discuss the government shutdown and the market’s muted reaction so far, recent moves in the big bank stocks, NVDA’s new highs, and parabolic action in stocks like WDC. They also cover recent developments in META and NFLX, provide an update on TSLA view following the expiration of tax credits, review major movers in the drug sector, highlight gold’s relentless rally, and look at FactSet’s coverage of EPS estimate increases.
Analysis - SP e-mini, JPM, BAC, C, NVDA, MU, WDC, DELL, META, NFLX, TSLA, RDDT, WMT, PFE, Gold, US10YY,
John Butters Factset Earnings Research - Q3 Bottom up EPS estimate rose for the first time since ‘21, with the energy sector seeing the largest gain.
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment, Current, and RBC Capital Markets.
