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Stocks End Quarter on High Note. NKE Beats After Hours.
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, Sept 30th
RiskReversal Media
September 30, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities were extremely quiet early, before grinding higher in the final hour, a move that was helped by end-of-quarter trading flows, particularly in the final minutes. The late push was enough for the SPX to get within a few points of all time highs, led by NVDA, which broke out to a fresh record. Elsewhere, action was mixed, with small caps continuing to consolidate since new highs last week, but even IWM saw a let day surge to finish unchanged. On the day: SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.3% and IWM unched.
Yields were similarly calm, adding to the quiet tone ahead of a potential government shutdown, with the US10YY now 4.15%. Oil followed through to the downside for a second straight day. Gold continues higher. The dollar was slightly lower. The VIX was slightly in the green despite equities being higher.
Notable Gainers: NVDA +2%, PFE +7.%, FCX +5.2%, DELL +4.8%, HOOD +4.5%, MRK +6.7%
Notable Losers: PYPL -3.9%, AXP -3%, CRM -3.6%, ORCL -1%, AMZN -1%, GS -1.1%, MELI -6.8%, INTC -3.3%
After hours: SPY, QQQ and IWM saw last minute marks higher into the close (end of quarter) and all are giving up some of that move after hours, with SPY -0.2%. NKE posted a beat and is +3%.
MRKT Call: Guy and Dan discuss the end of quarter, a potential government shutdown, the strong economy and persistent inflation, preview upcoming bank earnings, review last week’s IWM trade, analyze SAAS weakness, and examine the CRWV-META deal with comparisons to ORCL.
RiskReversal Pod: Liz and Guy discuss the government shutdown, the Fed, JOLTS and PMI, China’s tech sector, rising gold and what it portends, the AI trade, and potential year-end market trends.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rises to close out winning month, shakes off government shutdown concerns (CNBC)
Government on track to shut down after midnight with no funding deal in sight (CNBC)
A Traders’ Guide to US Markets If the Government Shuts Down (Bloomberg)
Trump, Pfizer agree to lower U.S. drug prices, exempt company from pharma tariffs (CNBC)
Nvidia’s market cap tops $4.5 trillion after string of AI infrastructure deals (CNBC)
CoreWeave signs $14 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta (CNBC)
Nvidia challenger Cerebras raises $1.1bn ahead of IPO (FT)
AI Data Centers Are Sending Power Bills Soaring (Bloomberg)
OpenAI Launches Video Generator App to Rival TikTok and YouTube(WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As far as today’s action, while the major indices stood still early, there were notable developments under the surface — most prominently, NVDA hit a new high after a two-month consolidation. If the stock at the center of the AI trade continues to lead, it could prove significant for market momentum.
Traders appeared content to wait out what now looks like a likely government shutdown beginning tomorrow. Despite the looming shutdown, options markets show little concern, with a normal expected move priced in for tomorrow and no real signs of elevated fear around a delay in Friday’s jobs number yet. Though that could change depending on how long the shutdown appears likely to last.
For tomorrow, in a addition to the news flow out of DC, we do get other sources of employment data, as well as construction and manufacturing numbers:
Wednesday, Oct 1st (consensus)
Pre-market: CAG 5%
8:15am - ADP Employment (45k)
10am - Construction Spending (-0.2%)
10am - ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.2)
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s latest episode: Government Shutdown Wild Card: Will Markets Buckle?
Guy and Dan discuss end of quarter, the government shut down, the strong economy and persistent inflation. An early preview of bank earnings (coming up mid October), and update on IWM trade from last week, a look at some SAAS weakness. Finally, a look at the CRWV META deal, and comparisons to ORCL.
Analysis - SPX, TLT, JPM, BAC, XLF, KRE, C, HUBS, CRM, NOW, CART, PYPL, APO, BX, AFRM, CRWV
Robinhood Live Trading: XLF, IWM trade update
Your Questions:
Clubber Lang - Thoughts on PYPL. Will this suck pump get out of its own way?
Gary Webb - Guys, any thoughts for recent weakness in specialty credit (AFRM, COF, UPST)?
Michael Koehl - Private equity stocks getting spanked
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s latest episode: Warning Signs in Gold: Should Retail Investors Worry?
In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, Guy Adami and Liz Thomas of SoFi discuss the looming government shutdown, and how the Fed may react. The conversation also touches on this week’s data metrics like JOLTS and PMI. Additionally, China's tech sector, rising gold and what it portends, the AI trade and possible trends into year end.
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