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Stocks End the Week in the Red. Earnings and Inflation Data Ahead.
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, July 11th
RiskReversal Media
July 11, 2025
MARKET WRAP
The day began with gap lower on tariff threats, this time Canada. Once again buyers stepped in within the first half hour and began the grind higher, a theme we’ve seen a lot of the past two weeks. There was a brief late-session selloff on a pair of headlines in quick succession: first, slightly hawkish comments from Fed Gov Goolsbee; then, a “Powell considering stepping down” tweet from FHFA Chair Pulte, citing himself. The market took both in stride, but they were probably enough to stop SPX momentum from going green on the day. Small caps were the most hit today. On the day: SPX -0.3%, QQQ -0.2% and IWM -1.3%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY jumped back up to 4.42% erasing the move lower earlier in the week. Oil also jumped back up near the weekly highs, now just shy of $69. Gold was higher, and the dollar was as well.
Notable Gainers Today: HAL +4.2%, CEG +2.5%, MSTR +3%, AMZN +1.2%
Notable Losers Today: PYPL -5.5%, TEAM -6.5%, GILD -4.3%, NKE -2.7%, V -2.3%
After hours: SPY and QQQ both a tick lower after hours following some selling into the close.
RiskReversal Pod: Stephanie Link joins Guy and Dan to talk tariffs, banks, deregulation, the AI stock boom, the weak dollar, and three stocks worth a closer look.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow drops 200 points, S&P retreats from record as Trump escalates trade battles (CNBC)
Trump Threatens 35% Canada Tariff, Floats Higher Global Rate (Bloomberg)
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: July 11, 2025 (FactSet)
Saudis Lift Oil Output Above Quota in Rare OPEC+ Breach (Bloomberg)
BP Flags Hit From Lower Oil, Gas Prices but Expects Production Rebound (WSJ)
Performance Food Draws Takeover Interest From US Foods (Bloomberg)
US Treasuries Volatility Gauge Falls to More Than Three-Year Low (Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs is piloting its first autonomous coder in major AI milestone for Wall Street (CNBC)
Bitcoin flies to new all-time highs topping $118,000 as institutions pile into ETFs (CNBC)
Jamie Dimon has a blunt message for Europe: ‘You’re losing’ (CNBC)
How Index-Fund Investing Turned Into an Extreme Sport (WSJ)
Google to agree cloud discount as US government squeezes Big Tech (Financial Times)
Huawei AI Chip Redesign Aims to Break Nvidia’s China Dominance (The Information)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
What was expected to be a potential volatility catalyst this week—the end of the 90-day tariff pause—turned into more of a placeholder. Instead of implementations or trade deals we got formal letters and a punt out to August 1st. Markets took the ambiguity all week in stride, leaning on a playbook of headline-driven selling met by dip-buying, with volatility steadily compressing as a result. The S&P 500 closed the week modestly lower, but the real story was the range—just 1.5% high to low—reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode, but more importantly, with little to no fear.
There were signs of increasing divergence though, within the low index volatility. We’re seeing some meme stock behavior as well as some out of the blue moves lower in some sectors. Some of it is tariff specific, some of it is overbought technicals, and other parts are just signs of frenzy. But after two months of high correlation with stocks moving in unison on macro news, we’re clearly entering a period of stock and sector specific movement.
Next Week
That asymmetric divergence is likely to increase near term because next week brings a fairly catalyst-rich environment. CPI/PPI mid week while Q2 earnings season kicks off in earnest with the big banks as well as Netflix. The next market move may depend less on tariff headline buy the dips and more on whether earnings reports can justify the magnitude of the rally.
We’ll be back on Sunday with a full preview!
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: 3 Stocks Worth A Closer Look 📈👀
Stephanie Link joins Guy and Dan to talk tariffs, banks, deregulation, the AI stock boom, the weak dollar, and three stocks worth a closer look. |
Dan and Guy are joined by Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Hightower Advisors. They explore topics like consumer spending, delinquency rates, job market stability, and the impact of tariffs on the economy. Stephanie shares her optimistic view on U.S. GDP growth, earnings expectations, and the performance of various sectors including financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary. The conversation also touches upon the implications of deregulation, the role of AI in corporate profitability, and specific stock picks like Boeing, Walmart, and Target. They debate the effects of the weak U.S. dollar and the regulatory environment on big tech companies such as Google and Apple. Throughout the discussion, Stephanie underscores her belief in the resilience of U.S. companies and the importance of focusing on best-in-class stocks.
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