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Stocks End Volatile Day and Week in the Green
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Oct 17th
RiskReversal Media
October 17, 2025
MARKET WRAP
It was another volatile session, with overnight futures pointing to a sharp gap lower before staging a strong pre-market rebound. The turnaround came on the heels of early morning tweets on the US/China dispute and some relief on the regional bank worries in the form of earnings and analyst upgrades. Small caps stayed in the red today while the large cap indices closed higher. That capped a very volatile week that saw SPX higher by about +1.6% from last Friday’s close and now just -1.5% from its all time highs made earlier that day. On the day: SPX +0.5%, QQQ +7% and IWM -0.6%.
Elsewhere, Gold finally took a breather today, albeit a small one after its epic run of late. The US10YY bounced slightly, back above 4%. Oil finishes the week at $57.65. DXY closes the week $98.43.
The VIX closes the week 20.71. It ticked as high as 29 overnight when it looked like this morning’s open could get ugly.
Notable Gainers: KVUE +8.3%, AXP +7.3%, GILD +4.2%, COF +4.1%, TFC +3.7%, AAPL +2%, WDAY +2.9%
Notable Losers: NEM -7.6%, ORCL -6.9%, MRNA -4.2%, IBKR -3.3%, SMCI -3.1%, CAT -2.6%, GS -1%
After hours: SPY and QQQ are both a tick higher after hours.
RiskReversal Pod: A packed podcast with Guy, Dan, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins covering everything from overall market strength, passive investing risks, renewed U.S.–China tensions and the government shutdown. They also tackle AI-driven valuations, the gold rally, a softening labor market, upcoming FOMC policy, and key earnings to watch.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow jumps 300 points as bank credit concerns and China trade tensions ease (CNBC)
‘The tide went out’: How a string of bad loans has bank investors hunting for hidden risks (CNBC)
Moody’s says the banking system, private credit markets are sound despite worries over bad loans (CNBC)
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update (FactSet)
Fed's Waller on board for an October rate cut, as Miran again presses for aggressive easing (Reuters)
Goldman Sachs Pursues Bigger Share of AI Infrastructure Financing Boom (WSJ)
Wall Street Races to Sell Risky ETFs as Crypto Crash Hits Retail (Bloomberg)
Bessent Says Will Meet China’s He in Malaysia Likely Next Week (Bloomberg)
IMF Sees ‘Significant’ Risks to Global Growth from US-China Row (Bloomberg)
America’s gravity-defying economy (FT)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
Today was another wild session in what’s been one of the most volatile stretches of the year. Much of the action actually happened overnight — with the VIX briefly printing above 29 in overnight trading. The past few days moves were amplified by today’s monthly options expiration where large short gamma exposure sat just below current SPX levels. The pre-market reversal may have represented a short-term capitulation point on the recent volatility. However, small caps never fully recovered, and it’ll be interesting to see if traders have been spooked in some of those names. IWM continues to bear the weight of both regional banks and the highly speculative, momentum-driven names that saw some unwinds this week from recent parabolic action. It’s still nearly -4% off its highs made last week.
For the week, we witnessed some of the widest index ranges and volatility in months, even as the major indices closed higher overall. The market tantrum that began last Friday reverberated through the entire week, with multiple days this week seeing 2% intraday swings That rapid expansion in volatility often leaves “scar tissue” in the market that takes time to heal, though it can also serve as a springboard higher if the underlying catalysts resolve.
The volatility wasn’t confined to equities. Yields were lower, while Gold and Bitcoin diverged dramatically. Gold paused today after an almost surreal multi-session surge, a move that only intensified trader unease around bank concerns. Bitcoin, meanwhile, failed to recover from last Friday’s sharp decline, likely tied to leverage unwinds near recent highs.
Looking Ahead
We’re now deep into earnings season, and the next three to four weeks of mega-cap reports will likely determine the setup for equities into year-end. These reports are arriving into a far less stable market backdrop, and large post-earnings moves are very much on the table. Traders will also have an eye on the tariff news, regional banks, and oh yeah, the ongoing government shutdown.
We’ll be back this weekend with a full Weekly Preview of what’s next.
TODAY’S EPISODE
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s latest episode: What Are We Doing If The Financial Levee Breaks?
This is a loaded RiskReversal Podcast featuring Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins discussing the current state of the financial markets. Topics include overall the strength of the broader market, the influence of passive investing on that strength and risk associated, the effects the government shutdown, and renewed tensions with China. Comparisons to the 1999 market, current valuations amid the AI boom, and the risks of a bubble. Additionally, the rally in gold, the weakening labor market, and upcoming monetary/FOMC policy. The conversation rounds off with a look at specific companies and sectors, upcoming earnings reports.
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