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Stocks Fade From Near Highs into CPI
RiskReversal Recap: Monday, August 11th
RiskReversal Media
August 11, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities took a bit of a breather after last week’s push back toward the highs, drifting lower most of the day and closing near the lows of the session. Traders were unlikely to take big swings to new highs ahead of tomorrow morning’s CPI print. On the day: SPX -0.3%, QQQ -0.4% and IWM -0.1%.
Elsewhere, gold’s volatility from the past few days continues, down -2.5% today. Yields were fairly quiet, as was oil. DXY was higher. The VIX is back above 16 into the CPI, short duration/0DTE vol ticked up significantly from Friday’s crush as well.
Notable Gainers: INTC +4%, EA +5%, BMNR +15%, COIN +3%, TSLA +3%, MU +4%, MMM +1.3%
Notable Losers: CRM -3.3%, IBM -2.5%, WDAY -3.7%, INTU -5.7%, CAT -2%
After hours: Both SPY and QQQ slightly lower after hours.
MRKT Call: Coverage of the latest on semiconductor import/export tariffs and what looks like “pay to play”. A look at whether some recent moves in the space are catchup plays and a checkin on some other big names’ recent action.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan welcomes David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research to talk recent tariff developments, inflation, concerns about valuation concentration, preferences for non-U.S. equities, utilities, aerospace defense, precious metals and more.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks slip to start the week as traders look ahead to CPI data (CNBC)
Small US Firms Paying Trump Tariffs Face $202 Billion Annual Hit (Bloomberg)
American Companies Are Buying Their Own Stocks at a Record Pace (WSJ)
A New Generation of ‘Buy the Dip’ Investors Is Propping Up the Market (WSJ)
Nvidia, AMD to Pay 15% on China AI Chip Sales in US Deal (Bloomberg)
Builder China South City Ordered to Liquidate by Hong Kong Court (Bloomberg)
Inside Target, Frustrated Employees and the Search for a New CEO (WSJ)
Paramount Buys UFC Rights for $7.7 Billion to Boost Streaming (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Beneath the calm surface of late, pockets of volatility remain alive and well—especially in the more speculative corners of the market. There are growing signs of meme-stock-mania energy spilling over into the crypto/stablecoin space, where some names have seen outsized moves. Those vibes will get a fresh test this week, with CRCL’s earnings reaction tomorrow morning.
The VIX ticked higher today, which isn’t a major statement on its own given how deeply vol was crushed into last weekend. Still, if we see volatility creeping up while stocks attempt a push to new highs, it can sometimes be a tell—suggesting speculative froth, with retail traders chasing upside calls in meme-or-meme-adjacent names. Something to keep an eye on if we do see new highs.
Tomorrow morning sees the first of the two major inflation data points in the CPI. Consensus is about 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY. Before the open is CRCL and after the close is CRWV. The expected move for tomorrow in SPX is nearly 0.8%, significantly higher than recent days that were below 0.5%.
Tuesday, August 12th
Pre-market: CRCL 10%, SE 10%
8:30am - CPI
10am - Fed Barkin Speech
10:30am - Fed Schmid Speech
2pm - Monthly Budget Statement
After-hours: CRWV 17%
SPX Expected Move: 0.7%
TLT Expected Move: 0.6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: So We're Making "Trade Deals" With Companies Now?
Coverage of the latest on semiconductor import/export tariffs and what looks like “pay to play”. A look at whether some recent moves in the space are catchup plays and a checkin on some other big names’ recent action.
Analysis - SPX, AMD, NFLX, MU, AAPL, META, NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, XHB, CAT, DE, COIN, CRCL
Your Questions:
Bob - Can anyone explain how Meta’s earnings from small business and chinese retailers went up in Q2 despite tariffs and exception removal? I don't understand.
WAVY MCFLY - Why do so many people just take NVDA’s earnings at face value? Their account receivables are almost 50% of their quarterly earnings, $CSCO’s A/R in October 2000 was 44%. What gives?
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Fed Will Cut, But You Won’t Like the Reason
Dan Nathan welcomes David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on the latest pod. The pair discuss various economic issues including U.S. trade policies, tariff implementations, and their impacts under President Trump's administration. David offers insights on the global repercussions of these tariffs, particularly focusing on their implications for inflation, domestic importers, consumers, and overall economic health. The conversation also explores how the Fed might respond to these pressures, potential market outcomes, and risk management strategies. David shares his outlook on the stock market, emphasizing the highs of the S&P 500, concerns about valuation concentration, and his preference for investments in non-U.S. equities and specific sectors like utilities, aerospace defense, and precious metals.
Learn more about our sponsor CME Group, iConnections, and SoFi.
