- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Stocks Fail to Build on Yesterday's Bounce
Stocks Fail to Build on Yesterday's Bounce
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, August 5th
RiskReversal Media
August 05, 2025
MARKET WRAP
A failed morning rally off of more soft economic data with stocks giving back some of yesterday’s bounce. The Russell 2k was the notable exception, able to add to yesterday’s move. On the day: SPX -0.5%, QQQ -0.7% and IWM +0.6%.
Elsewhere, extremely quiet with the 10YY unchanged, Gold a tick higher and the dollar unchanged. The exception was Oil, lower again today by -1.8% adding to a move of about -7% in the past week.
Notable Gainers: PLTR +8%, INTC +3.5%, UNH +4%, MMM +1.5%, HD +1.2%
Notable Losers: MSFT -1.5%, CSCO -1.5%, MCD -1.8%, VRTX -20%, APP -4.5%
After hours: Some big movers on earnings after the close, AMD is lower by about -4%, SMCI is down -16%, SNAP -16%, and OPEN -17%. Both QQQ and SPY lower a tad from the close.
MRKT Call: Guy and Dan on stagflation/slugflation following another disappointing macro data point today, today’s price action, a PLTR trade, and your questions.
RiskReversal Pod: Peter Boockvar joins Guy to discuss everything from tariffs, oil, China's leverage over the U.S., current market sentiment, the AI trade, and the fragmented performance of smaller market segments.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 falls after weak economic data and more tariff threats (CNBC)
Trump Says Treasury Secretary Bessent ‘does not want’ to be Fed chair, but 4 others in running (CNBC)
India Defies Trump on Russian Oil Despite Tariff Threats (WSJ)
OpenAI says ChatGPT is on track to reach 700M weekly users (TechCrunch)
OpenAI releases lower-cost models to rival Meta, Mistral and DeepSeek (CNBC)
Broadcom Chip to Help Power AI by Linking Up Smaller Data Centers (Bloomberg)
AI Is Listening to Your Meetings. Watch What You Say. (WSJ)
Wall Street Bonus Pool to Grow as Stock Rally Defies Tariff Woes (Bloomberg)
Push to Add ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Loans to Credit Scores Hits a Snag (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Today’s action doesn’t exactly settle the question of whether Monday’s rally was just a short-term oversold bounce, nor does it doesn’t confirm that sentiment has fully shifted bearish since last week either. The only lesson so far is that we have at least entered a phase of more two-way volatility day to day.
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen a few examples of dips being bought when things looked shaky, but we’ve also seen gaps higher faded when it seemed like we were back on track for new highs. That push-pull dynamic is making directional moves a bit less predictable for now, and the past few day’s action fits that pattern, a bit more cautious, a bit less conviction, and a market that seems to be second-guessing itself in both directions.
Over the past two weeks we’ve seen multiple SPX moves between 6200 and 6400. Today’s action puts us right in the middle of that range. Whether that’s a topping process or another consolidation before new highs remains to be seen, but volatility has been picking up in the indices themselves. And more significantly, in divergences beneath the surface.
Tomorrow sees another interesting batch of earnings including Disney, Shopify and McDonalds. Also, be aware of some Fed governor talk late in the trading day.
Wednesday, August 6th
Pre-market: DIS 5.5%, UBER 7%, SHOP 10.5%, NVO 6.5%, MCD 3%
2pm+ - Fed Cook, Collins, Daly Speeches
After-hours: APP 15%, DKNG 9%, ELF 12%
SPX Expected Move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: PLTR Post Earnings Trade
Guy and Dan on stagflation/slugflation following another disappointing macro data point today, today’s price action, a PLTR trade, and your questions.
Analysis - SPY, PLTR, LLY, NVO, UNH, BAC, JPM, NVDA, FIG, SPOT, NFLX
Robinhood Live Trade - PLTR Selling Call Spread
Your Questions:
Adam B - Any comment on SPOT?
Situation Room - Where might either of you buy FIG if it were to settle here?
Learn more about our sponsor, Robinhood.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Macro and Micro with Peter Boockvar
Subscribe to The Book Report here.
Peter Boockvar joins Guy to discuss tariffs, earnings and the BLS drama. A deep dive on oil including declining rig counts, U.S. shale production, OPEC's quota adjustments, U.S. threats to buyers of Russian oil. Then, China's leverage over the U.S. due to their control of rare earth magnets,. Plus current market sentiment, the AI trade, and a buy-the-dip mentality, vs the fragmented performance of smaller market segments.
0:00 - Intro 0:35 - Jobs Numbers & Firings 12:35 - Fed Speak 14:50 - Earnings Picture 20:00 - Energy 23:30 - China Troubles
Learn more about our sponsor Robinhood.
