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Stocks Fall Alongside Rate Cut Odds. MSFT, META and Q's Higher After Hours.
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, July 30th
RiskReversal Media
July 30, 2025
MARKET WRAP
The FOMC rate decision was widely expected but sentiment shifted during Powell’s presser with September rate cut odds declining below 50% (from 65% yesterday). That sent yields (and the dollar) higher, and stocks lower. The major indices recovered a bit, with Nasdaq going green into tonight’s big earnings reports (both META and MSFT are up after hours). On the day: SPX -0.1%, QQQ +0.2% and IWM -0.5%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY was higher, now 4.37%, DXY higher as well, now $99.81 with Gold lower. Oil is back above $70. The VIX closed slightly lower, now 15.50.
After hours: META is higher by +10%, MSFT is higher by +7%. Both of those are nearly double what the market was pricing. That has the QQQ’s sharply higher after hours, +0.8%.
MRKT Call: Katie Stockton joins Guy and Dan to discuss the past year’s volatility regime, signs of complacency, the momentum gauges she prefers, and any recent signs of exhaustion to that momentum. Plus, FactSet’s weekly on earnings season thus far.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan dive into recent earnings reports, today’s Q2 GDP number, and Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference. Plus trade talks with China and what’s next with tariffs and economic growth.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 turns lower as Powell signals the Fed is not ready to cut rates yet (CNBC)
US Economy Expands at a More Moderate Pace So Far This Year (Bloomberg)
Trump says Friday tariff deadline ‘will not be extended’ (CNBC)
Bank of America expects a jobs report dud on Friday (CNBC)
A Twitchy Market Is Punishing Stocks for the Slightest Earnings Dings (Barron’s)
S&P 500’s Banner Rally Faces Off With Worst Two Months of Year (Bloomberg)
Zuckerberg shares AI ‘personal superintelligence’ vision after spending billions on top talent (CNBC)
How China Is Girding for an AI Battle With the U.S. (WSJ)
Palantir Stock Structure Gives Founders the Power to Stay the Course (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
There weren’t many headline-making surprises in Powell’s remarks, but for those hoping recent political pressure might nudge the Fed toward a more dovish stance, there was little to cheer. The message remained clear: the Fed is still data-dependent, and in no rush to cut.
One notable development beneath the surface was the rise in short duration implied volatility following the decision and press conference. Typically, short duration vol declines post-FOMC—even on down days—as uncertainty gets resolved. But this time, with vol starting the week at historically low levels and major catalysts still ahead, traders continue to price in more movement as the week goes on.The SPX is now pricing an expected move of about 1.1% into Friday—roughly in line with expectations for the full week heading into Monday. With major earnings like AAPL and AMZN on the heels of META and MSFT (we’re likely to see an opening gap higher in tech tomorrow) and the Jobs Report on Friday (not to mention the end of the month), the second half of the week is likely to remain volatile, perhaps both ways.
Tomorrow, PCE, Apple, Amazon and more:
Thursday, July 31st
Pre-market: RBLX 12%, ABBV 4.3%
8:30am - PCE
9:45am - Chicago PMI
After-hours: AAPL 3.9%, AMZN 5%, MSTR 4%, COIN 6.5%, RDDT 11.9%, ROKU 10.5%, RIOT 7.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Katie Stockton Charts Yields, S&P 500, Bitcoin & $MSFT
Katie Stockton joins to discuss the past year’s volatility regime, signs of complacency now, momentum gauges she prefers, and any signs of exhaustion in momentum this week. Dan and Guy discuss the Fed and today’s presser.
Analysis - SPX, IWM, NVDA, BTC, US10YY, META, MSFT
John Butter’s FactSet Insight - How the market is rewarding/punishing EPS beats/misses more than usual. EPS guidance less negative than average?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: 3% GPD, Stick Rates and a Market on Edge
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan dive into recent earnings reports, today’s Q2 GDP number, and Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference. Plus trade talks with China and what’s next with tariffs and economic growth.
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment, Current, and RBC Capital Markets.
