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Stocks Finish Slightly Lower with Fed On Deck
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, Sept 16th
RiskReversal Media
September 16, 2025
MARKET WRAP
As pretty quiet day across the board as stocks closed modestly lower and looked hesitant to move too far from the 6600 level with tomorrow’s rate decision and Powell Presser looming. On the day: SPX -0.1%, QQQ -0.1% and IWM -0.1%.
Elsewhere, yields seem to have found their pre FOMC home just north of 4% in the 10YY. Tomorrow’s reaction will be interesting. Gold up a tick while Oil with a quiet rally the past few days, now $64.61. The dollar has declined pretty steadily the past week with DXY now $96.67 and at lows for the year. The VIX has risen this week even as stocks hit new highs—though from very low levels. It closed today at 16.36.
Notable Gainers: STX +7.3%, GOOGL +3.5%, MGM +3.5%, TSLA +3.5%, INTC +3.2%, GS +1%
Notable Losers: ISRG -3.2%, TXN -2.6%, AZN -1.9%, DHI -3.6%, MCD -1%
After hours: Quiet after hours with SPY and QQQ both up a tick.
MRKT Call: Guy and Danny Moses discuss stretched valuations, the weaker dollar, inflation, looming Fed cuts, as well as picks in energy, China, and more.
RiskReversal Pod: Liz and Guy break down the stock market at record highs, Fed rate cut prospects, economic data, earnings, mega-cap tech and Berkshire’s cash hoard.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 retreats from record as traders await big Fed decision (CNBC)
What to Watch at the Strangest Fed Meeting in Years (WSJ)
Fed ‘Third Mandate’ Forces Bond Traders to Rethink Age-Old Rules (Bloomberg)
It’s Not Just the Fed. This Week Is a Central-Bank Bonanza (WSJ)
Apple Could Be Best Positioned to Benefit From AI Hardware ‘Revolution,’ Analyst Says (Barron’s)
Microsoft announces $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure, operations in UK (CNBC)
Google’s Gemini tops Apple’s App Store, snagging lead spot from ChatGPT (CNBC)
YouTube to use AI to help podcasters promote themselves with clips and Shorts(TechCrunch)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Implied volatility picked up modestly, not just into the meeting but carrying through the end of the week as well. Still, that uptick comes off very low levels to start the week. The same is true for the VIX, which has edged higher for two straight days even as equities have been in the green.
Looking ahead, options are pricing about a 0.7% move in the SPX and a 0.8% move in TLT for tomorrow—roughly in line with expectations heading into last week’s PPI and CPI prints. While those levels point to elevated risk versus a normal session, they’re still relatively muted compared to macro events over the past months. As usual, the 2:00 PM statement could spark some initial, even counterintuitive, moves, but the main event will be Powell’s 2:30 press conference. Expect volatility to remain elevated into the close and potentially into Thursday morning.
Wednesday, Sept 17th
Pre-market: GIS 4%
8:30am - Housing Starts (1.37m)
2pm - Fed Rate Decision (4.25%)
2:30pm - Powell Presser
After-hours: CBRL 8%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Beware Quad Witching Friday
Guy and Danny Moses discuss stretched valuations, the weaker dollar, inflation, looming Fed cuts, as well as picks in energy, China, this week’s expiration and more.
Analysis - SPX, US10YY, DXY, Gold, NEM, GDX, PAAS, BABA, BIDU, KWEB, HOOD, PLTR, AVGO, VLO, XOM, RRC, SRUUF, URA
Your Questions
Situation Room - What's Danny's view on BABA here with reports that Jack Ma has returned. Would he be long here?
John Crenshaw - HOOD PLTR TSLA, is this a key moment to load some puts with a low VIX guys? These stocks have become mini casinos.
Clubber Lang - Thoughts on AVGO. RSI and MACD are off the chart.
Oliver Binns - What type of exogenous event would have to occur for investor sentiment to carry less weight and prices revert back to what the fundamentals reflect?
Wavy McFly - Favorite energy names?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: $22 Trillion and Counting: How US Tech Giants Just Beat China’s GDP
Guy Adami and Liz Thomas bring you an in-depth analysis of the United States stock market hitting an all-time high, bond yields, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. They explore the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut and the Fed's challenge in explaining such a move. The discussion includes comparisons to last year's market conditions, the labor market, and the importance of the Fed's upcoming economic projections. The hosts also examine regional manufacturing surveys, leading indicators, and market reactions to company earnings and guidance. The episode wraps up with an exploration of the substantial market cap of top tech companies and discussions on Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves under Warren Buffett.
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