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Stocks Finish Slightly Red, Yields Slightly Green on FOMC Cut.
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, Sept 17th
RiskReversal Media
September 17, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Markets reacted to today’s rate cut and Powell speak with slight disappointment—whether being reminded of the growth vs inflation mandate or simply everything was already fully priced in by treasuries and equities, making it a “sell the news” event. But big picture, moves were muted, consistent with the low volatility expectations heading into the day. On the day, SPX -0.1%, QQQ -0.2% and IWM +0.2%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY dipped below 4% on the Fed statement but quickly reversed higher to close 4.07%, up on the day. Gold and BTC went lower, as did Oil. The dollar went lower on the Fed before reversing higher and going green on the day. DXY is now 97.03. The VIX had crept up into the Fed, but closed lower with what is looking like a possible SPX 6600 magnet effect into Friday’s expiration.
Notable Gainers: WDAY +6.5%, MRVL +3.6%, AMAT +2.6%, ADBE +2.5%, NFLX +2.3%, AXP +2.1%, CAT +1.6%, PG 1.5%, WMT +1.5%
Notable Losers: AVGO -3.4%, ODFL -3.4%, NVDA -2.7%, MAR -2.5%, INTC -1.9%, MHK -4.7%, UBER -4.6%, NKE -1%
After hours: QQQ and SPY are both slightly green after hours.
MRKT Call: Guy and Dan on NVDA, Chinese stocks, Waymo, LYFT, and UBER—and question where TSLA fits into the story—then thoughts on the upcoming Fed rate cut cycle.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy welcomes Peter Boockvar to discuss the Fed rate cuts, their impact on stocks, bonds, metals, and housing, while exploring the broader risks of an economic slowdown.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Gen Z Leads Biggest Drop in FICO Scores Since Financial Crisis (Bloomberg)
Sales of heavy trucks are falling like the U.S. is headed for a recession (CNBC)
Deutsche Bank hikes 2026 gold forecast (CNBC)
Chinese Officials Urge Firms to Shun Nvidia AI Chip (WSJ)
Nvidia CEO says he’s ‘disappointed’ after report China has banned its AI chips (CNBC)
StubHub’s stock opens at $25.35 in NYSE debut after ticket seller’s long-awaited IPO (CNBC)
Lyft Stock Spikes 14%. Self-Driving Cars Are Coming to Nashville.(Barron’s)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Fed statement acknowledged moderating growth and a slowing labor market, but the tone stopped well short of introducing any surprise dovishness. The U.S. 10-year briefly dipped below 4% on the release before quickly reversing higher. By the end of Powell’s press conference, everything from the 2YY to the 30YY was in the green. One interesting note from the presser was just how honest Powell was on the odd position the FOMC now finds itself in, where they are cutting rates while still so far away from their inflation all the while trying to still figure out, in real-time, the effects of tariffs and an immigration crack-down.
Equities followed a mirror arc to the 10YY on the statement—initially with a pop, then sliding during Powell’s remarks on the dual mandate, but found some buyers to finish off the lows. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin both edged lower. So perhaps a few more questions coming out of this day than going in but not enough to scare investors much yet. Keep an eye on tomorrow morning’s reaction to see if anything changes overnight once market participants begin to think about the current set-up into year end.
Looking ahead, we have a large expiration this Friday which could inject at least the possibility for a larger market reaction next week. The SPX closing today at exactly 6600 is a sign of options dampening this week’s volatility. We’ll preview those conditions tomorrow and Friday. Also, the labor situation is now taking on more and more significance and tomorrow morning we get initial jobless claims, a number that surprised to the upside last week. Also tomorrow, FedEx after the close:
Thursday, Sept 18th
Pre-market: DRI 5%, FDS 7.5%
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims (240k)
8:30 - Philly Manufacturing (2.3)
After-hours: FDX 7.5%, LEN 6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: So The Fed Is Cutting Rates, What's Next?
Guy and Dan kick things off with the latest on NVDA, before breaking down Chinese stocks recent bearish to bullish reversal. They dive into Waymo, LYFT, and UBER—and question where TSLA fits into the story—then wrap with thoughts on the upcoming Fed rate cut cycle.
Analysis - NVDA, IONQ, ORCL, BIDU, BABA, LYFT, UBER, SPY, WMT
Live Robinhood Trade: SPY put in October
FactSet John Butters Earnings Report - The percentage of buy ratings among sectors and individual stocks.
Your Questions
Jack CF - What’s a good level to short TSLA?
Toby - LLY slowly climbing, fade or trade?
Matt Walter - Thoughts on OPEN, meme or turnaround story?
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Shocking Side Effects of Rate Cuts: Corporate Bonds, Gold & Global Drama
Guy Adami is joined by Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG and publisher of The Boock Report to discuss the ramifications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and market trends. The conversation covers factors influencing stock, bond, and metals markets, including the Fed's motives behind rate cuts, the labor market, and inflation dynamics. They delve into political influences within the Fed and the potential for further economic deceleration. Additionally, they examine the global economic landscape, including central bank actions in the UK and Japan, foreign trade impacts, and US home builder market challenges. The episode concludes with insights on the importance of economic data and historical market patterns.
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