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Stocks Finish Volatile Week Unchanged
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Nov 14h
RiskReversal Media
November 14, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks gapped lower again this morning in an ugly follow-through to yesterday’s selling, but this time buyers showed up almost immediately. The rebound was enough to drag the tape back into the green for much of the day, before some late day selling left it essentially unchanged for the day, and remarkably for the week as well. On the say, SPX -0.1%, QQQ +0.1%, and SPX +0.2%
Elsewhere, the CME FED Futures have about a 45% change of a Dec rate cut, even lower than yesterday. With that, the US10YY crept even higher today, now 4.15%. Gold and oil were both volatile today, with Gold lower by nearly -3% and Oil higher, now just shy of $60. The VIX hit 23 this morning before ending the day 19.83.
After Hours: Berkshire announced a new $4.3b GOOGL position, the stock is higher by about +1.5% after hours.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan sit down with PEAK6’s Jenny Just, Matt Hulsizer, and Apex CEO Bill Capuzzi at the Ascend Innovation Summit to discuss the evolution of options and retail trading, the democratization of finance, and how technology, culture, and fintech innovation are shaping the future of both traditional and decentralized markets.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Nasdaq closes higher, snapping three-day losing streak as tech stocks recover some ground (CNBC)
September jobs report will be out Thursday as first data since shutdown starts to trickle out (CNBC)
Fed’s Hawks Seize Spotlight Making Case Against a December Cut (Bloomberg)
Fewer burritos, more bargains: Consumers flash holiday warning signs (CNBC)
Walmart’s Doug McMillon to Step Down as CEO After Over a Decade (WSJ)
Wall Street is counting on Nvidia’s earnings next week to revive the AI trade (CNBC)
Stress Testing Amid Rising Fears of an AI Bubble (FactSet)
Who Will Pay for the AI Revolution? Retirees(WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
We ended this week in a very similar fashion as last week, with a nearly 2% intraday reversal from morning lows to the afternoon highs. The VIX briefly pushed above 23 on today’s open, in what looks like another potential short-term capitulation moment, similar to last Friday’s. Last Friday’s bounce carried over to start this week, but that simply was a precursor to late week volatility following the end of the government shutdown. For the week, believe it or not, the market essentially held its ground — both QQQ and SPY finished very close to last Friday’s close. But it came close to getting messy for a second straight week, and the volatility bands continue to widen. This week’s VIX spike marking today’s bottom was slightly higher than last Friday’s.
Looking Ahead
It’s worth remembering that volatility leaves scar tissue, and that volatility from last week remained in equities even as stocks rebounded to start the week. If the SPX were to roll over again next week, the VIX spike would likely be even higher. In a prolonged period of volatility, the VIX trends toward higher highs and higher lows with each leg lower in the SPX until a final capitulation VIX spike marks the true end of the equity selling. In other words, vol begets vol, and each subsequent sell-off may require a higher VIX spike to mark the next capitulation reversal. As for the recent volatility, the SPX has made multiple round trips inside a 6% range over the past two weeks. With NVDA earnings, the FOMC meeting, and a flood of delayed economic data all on deck (we’ll get Sept Jobs report this upcoming Thursday), the eventual breakout (or breakdown) from this range could move fast with very little friction, (outside of the 7,000 SPX strike as overhead supply/resistance).
We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of next week’s catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Can Retail Be Smarter Than Wall Street?
In this episode of the Risk Reversal Podcast, hosts Guy Adami and Dan Nathan sit down with Jenny Just and Matt Hulsizer of PEAK6 at the Ascend Innovation Summit in Austin, Texas. The discussion explores their backgrounds in options trading at O'Connor and Associates, the evolution of retail trading, and the significance of democratizing finance. The conversation also touches on the role of technology in trading, the importance of culture in maintaining business integrity, and how PEAK6 leverages these elements in various ventures, including Apex Fintech Solutions. Additionally, the episode features a segment with Bill Capuzzi, CEO of Apex, who discusses the impact of fintech innovations and the convergence of traditional and decentralized finance.
Learn more about our sponsor Fidelity, CME Group, and iConnections.
