MARKET WRAP

We’re publishing the recap a little early today so we could get the link out for . The Week That Was. (link above)

Amazon — and to a lesser extent Apple — came to the rescue this morning, giving stocks a green gap higher out of the gate and clawing back much of yesterday’s losses. But implied volatility never really bought into the early strength, and that skepticism proved justified. Midday headlines about potential U.S.–Venezuela military action spooked markets, briefly pushing the SPX into the red before buyers stepped back in. As of now, the index has bounced back to positive territory.

Elsewhere, it’s been a relatively quiet session for yields, with the 10-year steady around 4.10%. Gold’s having one of its rare calm days, while the dollar index (DXY) continues to firm, now hovering near 100. Oil’s seen some intraday swings on the geopolitical headlines, but no move has really stuck. The VIX spiked as high as 18.50 on the Venezuela chatter but has eased back as equities stabilized into the afternoon.

Prices at 2:30 eastern:

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Amazon’s stock soars 12% on third-quarter beat, increased spending guidance (CNBC)

• Tech’s $380 billion splurge: This quarter’s winners and losers of the AI spending boom (CNBC)

• Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough (WSJ)

• Credit market hit with $200bn ‘flood’ of AI-related issuance (FT)

• S&P 500 Reporting Net Profit Margin Above 5-Year Average for 6th Straight Quarter (FactSet)

• Should You Just Buy Stocks Until You Die? (WSJ)

• ‘Sometimes We See Bubbles,’ Michael Burry Warns Retail Traders (Bloomberg)

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Week That Was

Stocks finished the week higher, which is saying something given the run of mildly disappointing headlines over the past few days. It started with the Fed — the rate cut itself was no surprise, but Powell’s tone around the December meeting dialed back the near-certainty of another cut. That took a little wind out of the market’s sails midweek. Then came earnings: META got hit hard, MSFT slipped modestly, and while GOOGL managed to hang in the green, the overall mood after Wednesday’s close was sour. That night, we got some details from the latest U.S.–China trade talks, but they fell short of anything resembling a deal — more delay than breakthrough — and Thursday’s session tested some nerves.

Then Amazon came to the rescue, while Apple didn’t disappoint, and that was enough to rescue sentiment into this morning. However, some geopolitical noise via some US/Venezuela and possible strikes sent IV higher today and stocks got spooked a little as well.

Looking Ahead

Next week’s focus will be on the jobs data — or at least what we get of it, since the NFP report may be delayed. JOLTS and ADP will still hit, and given the Fed’s more cautious tone on future cuts, those numbers will carry extra weight. The market’s ideal setup from here is a “just right” Goldilocks mix: job growth that’s steady but not too hot, inflation that keeps drifting lower, and no major data gaps to spook investors heading into year-end. Too weak, and growth worries take over; too strong, and the Fed might sit tight.

Volatility did tick higher today (the VIX up even with stocks green), hinting that traders aren’t totally relaxed. We’ll have more this weekend — including a closer look at next week’s setup and the technical backdrop as the S&P 500 grinds toward an area with some heavy overhead supply (SPX 7000).

Happy Halloween!

CHECK OUT THE WEEK THAT WAS - ROBINHOOD LIVE

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