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Stocks, Gold Take a Breather
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, Oct 9th
RiskReversal Media
October 09, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks pulled back modestly today, backing off from all-time highs made by SPY and QQQ yesterday. It was a mild risk-off/consolidation mood in gold and bitcoin as well, both backing off their own record levels from the past 24–48 hours. Still, nothing major and barely any uptick in implied vols as some stocks like NVDA made new highs. On the day, SPX -0.3%, QQQ -0.2% and IWM -0.6%.
Elsewhere, extremely quiet in yields with the 10YY now 4.14%. DXY continues its rally, now $99.41. Gold, as mentioned, pulled back below 4k. Oil was lower, now $61.45. The VIX ticked higher, but not by much, now 16.43. (more on gold and vol below)
After hours: SPY and QQQ closed well above their intraday lows, but both are down a tick after hours.
MRKT Call: Dan and Guy discuss Applovin, gold and silver, growing debt within the AI trade and concentration risk in ETFs. Then, bank earnings, homebuilders, the next move for yields, and Pepsi and Delta’s results.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500, Nasdaq retreat from record highs (CNBC)
Delta says premium travel is set to overtake coach cabin sales next year (CNBC)
Retail investors are back in the market in a big way after summer pause. What they are buying (CNBC)
The ‘debasement trade’ is the talk of Wall Street. What is it and is it too late to get in? (CNBC)
Gold Screams ‘Debasement Trade.’ Bonds Say Otherwise. (WSJ)
Gold’s Record Rally Is Helping China Challenge Trump and the Dollar (Bloomberg)
US Job Market Is Rebalancing Not Weakening, Dallas Fed Blog Says (Bloomberg)
Kevin Warsh Says Jerome Powell Has Failed. Inside the Mind of the Man Who May Lead the Trump Fed. (Barron’s)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Gold
As mentioned here two days ago, gold’s recent push above the 4000 level could serve as a natural area for consolidation or even a short-term pullback. The surge in mainstream media coverage around those highs may also prove to be a short-term contrarian signal, though the fundamental backdrop — as has been discussed extensively on RiskReversal — still looks largely intact.
Equity Vol
On the volatility front, the VIX ticked higher today but not by much, underscoring the lack of real fear that any of these down days get ugly. The recent drift upward in the VIX has arguably been driven more by retail enthusiasm, with traders piling into upside calls for year-end breakouts. Some institutional put buying has emerged in the past week, likely profit protection into year end as puts remain cheap.
However, With earnings season kicking off, that behavior may accelerate, especially in large-cap names that have seen outsized runs. The last earnings cycle featured muted index volatility but dramatic single-stock moves, and traders haven’t forgotten. As we get closer to those names reporting, we could see a pickup in demand for downside protection — and with it, a path for the market to test those levels if some of the mega-caps disappoint. For now, down days looks more like consolidation within an ongoing bullish trend. It’s likely earnings season is the only thing that could disrupt that.
For tomorrow, a very quiet day on the calendar front. The expected move in SPX is 0.4%, which has been pretty much the daily pricing every day this week:
Friday, October 10th
10am - Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment (54.2)
Fed Speak: Musalem
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Dangers in Passive Investing Explained
Dan and Guy discuss the latest Applovin news, the rallies in gold and silver and whether a pullback may be near, and the growing debt within the AI trade and current concentration risks in passive investing. They also look ahead to bank earnings, examine pressure on homebuilders, consider the next move for yields, and break down Pepsi and Delta’s results from this morning.
Analysis - S&P e-minis, IWM, QQQ, APP, Gold, Silver, ORCL, NVDA, JEF, XLF, C, BAC, ITB, US10YY, COST, PEP, DAL, Crude
Your Questions
Ziad Khalaf - Can we talk about COPPER? Gold and Silver need a break. COPPER AND PLATINUM are the the new kids on the block
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