MARKET WRAP

Stocks closed higher following a mixed set of mega cap earnings and a slightly worse than expected GDP print. SPX finished the day +0.5%, QQQ +0.4% and IWM +1%. The moves higher essentially reversed yesterday’s losses. The US10yr moved lower to to 4.52, helping equities. (TLT was +0.4%). The VIX closed the day 15.70. That is significant because it’s down from a pre-market high of near 23 Monday morning and that type of rapid decline can have an effect that we’ll get to in coming days. There was late day index moves today after more Tariff Talk, but was mostly shrugged off into the close. After hours we’re seeing small earnings move so far from INTC (+2%) and AAPL (basically unchanged so far). Earnings calls to come. Tomorrow morning we get inflation data, expected moves for the indices at the bottom of the email. Today’s MRKT Call wants your feedback. Check it out below!

MRKT MATRIX: January 30, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Stocks waver in volatile session as traders digest deluge of earnings reports (CNBC)

• Meta Gains After Zuckerberg Predicts ‘Really Big Year’ in AI (Bloomberg)

• Microsoft Has Kind Words for DeepSeek AI, Offers It to Customers (Bloomberg)

• Microsoft and Meta AI Splurge Still Not Enough for Nvidia (WSJ)

• OpenAI in Talks for Huge Investment Round Valuing It Up to $340 Billion (WSJ)

• Amazon Raises Its Ad Spending on Elon Musk’s X, in Major Reversal (WSJ)

• UPS Shares Plunge on Plan to Slash Amazon Business By Half (Bloomberg)

• Trump Keeps World Waiting on Tariffs, Tries to Hash Out a Plan (Bloomberg)

• Here’s What Stands in the Way of Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ Tax and Border Bill (WSJ)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by Robinhood

How To Trade Earnings Volatility: TSLA, MSFT, META, AAPL, UPS, GM

Dan and Guy break down the single-stock volatility playing out this earnings season. They analyze MSFT and NOW’s declines, discussing whether NOW is oversold yet. Next, they take a look at NVDA before diving into your questions, covering UBER and TSLA. They also examine GM after its post-earnings sell-off, highlighting a call calendar strategy that could set up a move higher after some consolidation. Then, they turn to AAPL ahead of tonight’s earnings report and discuss UPS following its earnings drop—including a comparison of AMZN vs. UPS.

Click here to access all of the charts mentioned in today’s MRKT Call.

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What’s Next?

Tomorrow’s PCE is a potential market mover, as it's closely watched by the FOMC. With a long gap between Fed meetings, bond and equity markets will be parsing tomorrow’s PCE, next week’s NFP jobs report, and the February 12th CPI without a net for a while. That said, options are pricing in about a 0.6% move—elevated for a typical day, but nowhere near the levels seen for a PCE or CPI when inflation data was more volatile. If PCE lands within economist expectations, markets are set for a relatively quiet day. However, a surprise outside those estimates could catch traders off guard.

Tomorrow:

• 8:30 AM PCE Report

• Expected Market Moves:

  • SPX: 0.6%

  • QQQ: 1%

  • TLT: 0.6%

• Earnings Reports:

  • XOM: 2% expected move

  • CVX: 2.4% expected move

  • ABBV: 3.8% expected move

Market Dynamics

Despite recent volatility, the SPX is essentially unchanged from where it started in December. As Guy pointed out on today’s MRKT Call, the VIX isn’t fully reflecting this because while equities are moving sharply, they have been doing so in different directions. The CBOE Correlation Index measures correlation amongst equities. It is at six-month lows, signaling unusually low correlation between stocks and sectors—beyond what’s typical for earnings season. If earnings reactions remain volatile but mixed, these conditions could persist.

The next decisive market move may not happen until equity correlations begin to tighten again. Meanwhile, SKEW readings—while still elevated—are well below last month’s highs, suggesting traders have adjusted to localized volatility without expecting a broad market-wide follow-through in either direction. Keep an eye on those correlation and dispersion metrics.

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