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Stocks Grind Higher into Month End Catalysts
RiskReversal Recap: April 29, 2025
RiskReversal Media
April 29, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks continued to grind higher on Tuesday in relatively quiet action ahead of a wave of key economic data and major earnings reports set to hit over the next few sessions. The main headline of the day came was where Amazon was briefly singled out by the administration that it might start displaying tariff-related price impacts — a report the company later denied. On the day: SPX +0.6%, QQQ +0.6% and IWM +0.6%. The 10Y yield continues lower, now 4.17%. Oil was lower as well and now back near $60. Keep an eye on those last two.
Tomorrow is the end of the month where we also we get GDP and PCE prints, followed by earnings from Microsoft and Meta after the close.
After hours: Early reaction to earnings reports include SNAP -10%, SBUX -1% and V +2%
MRKT Call: The market’s sneaky bid. A preview of some of the names reporting this week. Are we already in a recession? And a look at economically sensitive transport names.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan dissect the administration's first 100 days, tariff impacts, plus previews of the upcoming earnings reports and key economic events.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow rises 300 points, hits high of the session as Lutnick hints trade deal coming (CNBC)
Trump: ‘I think we’ll have a deal with India’ on tariffs and trade (CNBC)
Trump to Soften Blow of Automotive Tariffs (WSJ)
Goldman’s Solomon Says Markets Will ‘Settle Down’ After Disorder (Bloomberg)
Barclays says a U.S. recession is increasingly likely, so underweight ‘risk assets’ (CNBC)
Retail Giants Manage to Keep a Lid on Prices but Warn It Can’t Last (WSJ)
Merck to Spend $1 Billion on New Factory to Make U.S. Supplies of Blockbuster Drug (WSJ)
UPS Plans 20,000 Job Cuts This Year in Pullback From Amazon (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Calm Before the Storm?
The first two days of the week have seen a steady grind higher for equities, with volatility notably subdued. But as we flagged over the weekend, that calm may not last much longer. Starting tomorrow morning, things kick into high gear with key catalysts lined up for the back half of the week.
We begin the day with two major economic data releases — GDP and the closely watched PCE inflation print — both hitting before the market opens. Then, after the close, we get earnings from two of the Mag7: Microsoft and Meta. It is also the last day of month where some confusing late day price action may occur. The SPX has a chance to close the month of April in the green, which would mark a historic reversal.
With more mega-cap reports and critical macro data still to come later in the week, volatility could return to some extent. That does not necessarily mean a turning point for the market (it could) but it will at least result in some after hours moves, overnight gaps and the potential for intraday reversals larger that what we’ve seen the past five trading days.
Wednesday, April 30
8:15am - ADP Employment
8:30am - GDP, PCE
9:45am - Chicago Purchasing Managers
10am - Pending Home Sales
Earning Pre-Market: ETSY 10%, CAT 5%
Earnings After Hours: MSFT 4.3%, META 7.1%, HOOD 11.2%, QCOM 6.1%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Planes, Trains & Automobiles: Economic Warning?
The market’s sneaky bid. A preview of some of the names reporting this week. Are we already in a recession? And a look at economically sensitive transport names. |
Analysis: SPX, US10YY, UPS, GM, JBHT, CSX, Crude, META, NVDA, AAPL, PLTR
Your Questions Answered:
Thoughts on the JOLTS Jobs number?
Where are you all on UNH?
Will any of the hyper-scalers lower capex when reporting earnings. If so, how do the stocks move?
What happens to PLTR after earnings, rip higher no matter what?
How does the market go higher with transports getting crushed?
Learn more about our sponsor, FactSet.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Trump's First 100 Days 'Redux'
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan dissect the current state of the market after the second Trump administration's first 100 days, tariff impacts, earnings reports and key economic events. |
Timecodes
0:00 - First 100 Days
8:30 - NVDA Fallout
14:30 - Notable Commentary
19:30 - Fed Speak
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
