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Stocks High, Vol Low into First Fed Cut.
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Sept 12th
RiskReversal Media
September 12, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stock drifted to an unchanged finish today, with small caps and industrials in the red but the Nasdaq in the green (and a new high). That left SPX essentially unched on the day. Today’s mixed action capped a really good week for equities overall (SPX +1.5%) as the market shrugged off warning signs from the labor market and instead focused on upcoming rate cuts from the Fed. On the day: SPX unched, QQQ +0.4% and IWM -0.8%.
Elsewhere pretty quiet. The US10YY looks like it may have completed its pre FOMC move for now, bouncing a little bit today back to 4.06%. Oil and Gold were slightly in the green. The VIX ends the week 14.75.
Notable Gainers: WBD +17%, PSKY +19%, TSLA +7%, NRG +4.8%, MU +4.6% PLTR +4%, MSFT +1.8%
Notable Losers: MRK -2.6%, LULU -3.6%, ANET -8.7%, ORCL -5%, MRNA -7.3%
After hours: SPY was higher most of the day but sold off into the red (barely) in the last hour. It’s a tick lower after the bell.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan talks with Wedbush’s Dan Ives about his new AI innovation ETF, his crypto treasury role with Worldcoin, Tesla’s robotics potential, Google’s AI legal challenges, and the mixed performance of big tech stocks.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Drugmakers Fall on Report US to Claim Covid Shots Killed Kids (Bloomberg)
Winklevoss’ Gemini Up 64% as IPO Leads Crowded Slate of Debuts (Bloomberg)
Amazon, Google Probed by FTC Over Search Advertising Practices (Bloomberg)
OpenAI’s Funding Challenges Loom Over Oracle, Broadcom Deal Spree (WSJ)
Tesla’s Chair Says Only Musk Can Lead Company’s Next Phase (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
This week’s rally stood out in a couple of important ways. First, it signaled that traders are increasingly willing to set aside economic worries in the near term and instead focus on the tailwinds of Fed rate cuts and falling Treasury yields. The fact that markets pushed higher despite several weak labor market data points suggests this rally could broaden out and potentially fuel more speculative activity, particularly from retail investors, in the weeks and months ahead.
Looking Ahead
The question is whether anything can derail that momentum. Next week’s FOMC meeting is essentially a foregone conclusion on the rate cut front, but Chair Powell’s press conference may set the tone for how sustainable this move is. If the Fed indicates that inflation is no longer a major concern and that a series of cuts can support the job market without rekindling price pressures, conditions could be ripe for a year-end rally. On the other hand, if Powell emphasizes downside risks to the economy and signals the Fed is cutting rates primarily out of concern for growth, that could undercut equities from this potential breakout.
For now, traders are showing little sign of worry. Implied volatility sits near the lowest levels of the year, with only a modest uptick priced in ahead of the Fed decision. But in either of the above scenarios, we’d likely see an increase in volatility, obviously if the market goes lower, but also likely to the upside as a rally from here would typically see speculative moves in secondary AI names beyond the NVDA’s of the world.
We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of FOMC week.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Pondering Orbs, Oracle & Palantir with Dan Ives
Dan Nathan hosts Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush to discuss Ives' new AI innovation ETF and its dynamic components. Ives addresses his recent appointment as chairman of a crypto treasury company tied to Worldcoin, emphasizing future authentication technology. The conversation also covers Tesla's potential in robotics and autonomous driving, with Ives expressing cautious optimism. They delve into Google’s AI advancements impacting its legal battles and analyze the mixed performance of major tech stocks. Ives highlights the importance of focusing on data and long-term investment opportunities amidst market noise.
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