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Stocks Higher, Yields Lower Following Fed
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday,
RiskReversal Media
December 10, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Investors generally liked what they heard from the Fed today. Equities pushed higher while Treasury yields drifted modestly lower. The move higher in SPX was in line with the expected move for the day, suggesting that it was towards the high end of expectations but not in a way that caught anyone completely offsides. The SPX did briefly threaten a new closing high before settling just below at the close, IWM is now well through its prior highs On the day: SPX +0.7%, QQQ +0.4% and IWM +1.3%.
Elsewhere, yields were lower across the board with the US10YY now back to 4.15%. Yields had been creeping higher into the Fed. Gold is now just shy off all time highs, oil was higher but has found a home near $60 for some time now. The dollar was lower with DXY -0.5%. The VIX got hit post Fed and is now 15.77.
Notable Moves Today: The move higher today was fairly broad based with industrials, healthcare, financials and energy leading. Tech was once again mixed but small caps surged to new highs on what appears to be a breakout in IWM.
After Hours: ORCL is lower by about -7% following earnings, that’s inside the expected move of 10%. SPY and QQQ are unched after hours.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy preview the Fed and key earnings from ORCL and AVGO, with Robinhood’s Michael Obucina breaking down options pricing in SPX and TLT and whether all the “hawkish cut” talk sets up a market surprise.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow closes nearly 500 points higher after Fed cuts rates (CNBC)
Divided Fed approves third rate cut this year, sees slower pace ahead (CNBC)
Trump says Fed could have ‘at least doubled’ latest interest rate cut (CNBC)
The Everyday Investors Hedging Against an AI Bubble (WSJ)
Donald Trump’s tariffs intensify strain on US farmers, Deere warns (FT)
Massive Debt-Fueled Deals, From Warner to Electronic Arts, Are Back on Wall Street (WSJ)
Investors Bet That a Higher Bid for Warner Is Coming (WSJ)
Inside Meta’s Pivot From Open Source to Money-Making AI Model (Bloomberg)
DeepSeek is Using Banned Nvidia Chips in Race to Build Next Model (The Information)
WHAT’S NEXT?
If this afternoon’s move higher in equities and drift lower in treasuries carries through the next few sessions, it may set us up for a low-volatility grind higher into year-end.
The last factor to consider into year end is the upcoming economic data. Powell was clear that the upcoming slate of labor and inflation prints over the next few weeks will guide the FOMC from here. He did caution that some of the initial data could still be distorted by the government shutdown and measurement quirks, but he also implied the Fed has a reasonable handle on how those distortions might show up. Importantly, much of the market’s upside came after Powell noted that, even with dissenters, the broader tone in the room ranges from “wait and see” to “continue cutting,” which was received as decidedly non-hawkish.
Whether we actually see more cuts from here is still an open question. Our friend Peter Boockvar thinks this may be it for now:
Bottom line, while we knew exactly what the Fed was going to do because John Williams told us, it still is a very tricky time for the Fed in balancing their two mandates especially I would argue where they are still missing on one (inflation) which is resulting in softness in the other. The difficulty of having a dual focus. As long as Powell is Fed chair I’ll say again that I think he’s done cutting rates UNLESS inflation decelerates from here and/or unemployment takes another leg higher. Once he’s gone, of course all bets are off.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, Oracle’s after-hours reaction sets the stage for Broadcom’s report after the close tomorrow. SPX expected move goes from 0.7% for today’s Fed, to 0.5% for tomorrow post Fed:
Thursday, Dec 11th
Pre-market: CIEN 10%
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims (220k)
After-hours: AVGO 6%, LULU 9%, COST 3.5%, RH 11%
SPX Expected Move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: All Eyes On The Federal Reserve
Dan and Guy preview today’s Fed decision and this week’s key earnings, including ORCL and AVGO. Michael Obucina from Robinhood joins to talk about how options are pricing SPX and TLT into the Fed, whether all the “hawkish cut” chatter could set up a surprise, and just how quiet the market has been with moving averages starting to converge just below current levels.
Robinhood Live Trade: ORCL
Analysis: SPX, MSFT, AAPL, PLTR, NVDA, NFLX, JPM, TLT, E-minis, ORCL,
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