- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Stocks Lower, Oil Higher on Israel Strikes, Iran Retaliation
Stocks Lower, Oil Higher on Israel Strikes, Iran Retaliation
RiskReversal Recap: June 13, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 13, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities were lower and oil sharply higher today on the escalation in fighting between Israel and Iran. It was a volatile week across multiple asset classes with rising geopolitical tensions that the stock market largely shrugged off until today. On the day: SPX -1.1%, QQQ -1.3% and IWM -1.85%. Despite today’s action and a slew of news all week, the SPX was only down -0.2% on the week.
Elsewhere, the big story is clearly Oil, up +7.5% today, above $73, and now with a +20% move in June. The 10YY was higher today, reversing some of the past two days decline, now 4.41%. In a rare move recently, Gold and the Dollar were both higher. The VIX, which had been creeping to the upside the past few days, finally spiked and went into the weekend above 21.
After hours: The major indices bounced off the intraday lows in the final minutes and both SPY and QQQ are following through a tad to the upside after hours.
RiskReversal Pod: Imran Kahn of Proem Group joins Dan to talk over capitalized companies, innovation, platform shifts, key growth areas and investment opportunities in tech for the next decade.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow drops 800 points as Israel-Iran tensions intensify, oil prices spike (CNBC)
Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Sites and Kills Senior Commanders (Bloomberg)
Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel: ‘Hard Retaliation Operation has begun,’ Tehran says (CNBC)
US Consumer Sentiment Jumps as Inflation Expectations Improve (Bloomberg)
China Boosts Tesla Self-Driving Plan With Car-Data Export Rules (Bloomberg)
Walmart and Amazon Are Exploring Issuing Their Own Stablecoins (WSJ)
Meta Finalizes $14.3 Billion Scale Investment, Hires Its CEO (Bloomberg)
BMO Capital Markets upgrades Oracle to outperform following earnings blowout (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Despite a week packed with news, the S&P 500 finished down just -0.2%, a deceptively calm outcome for what was anything but a quiet week. Under the hood, volatility picked up notably, especially intraday, as traders attempted to price in a barrage of conflicting signals.
Decent news from China/ U.S. talks early early in the week, then better-than-expected inflation data mid week offered some hope, but any optimism for a run to new highs was quickly tempered by geopolitical risk and in hindsight, a notable lack of clarity on the path forward for the ongoing trade war. The 90-day tariff truce now has less than three weeks remaining, and the market is still without a clear framework for resolution on not just China, but the EU, and others.
The 6000 level on the S&P 500 seemed to exert a gravitational pull throughout, acting as both a psychological anchor and a potential resistance point to the V shaped market recovery. Meanwhile, price action in other assets only added some chaos: oil spiked, Treasury yields chopped around with no clear direction now, and the dollar hit multi-year lows, failing to confirm a single dominant macro theme that earlier in the week seemed to have stocks rallying on the hopes of room for a more dovish Fed.
The result was a market with no single storyline strong enough to drive a decisive breakout to the prior highs. The week may look flat on the surface, but the rising cross-asset volatility underneath suggests new tension on the rally than just a few days ago. The situation over the weekend in the Middle East is now likely to dictate Monday’s open and perhaps whether we just saw a top, or a consolidation.
We’ll be back this weekend with a look at next week’s trading catalysts, including a large quarterly expiration, check your inbox on Sunday!
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Imran Khan: Money For Nothing And Your Chips For Free
Imran Kahn of Proem Group joins Dan to talk over capitalized companies, innovation, platform shifts, key growth areas and investment opportunities in tech for the next decade. |
Dan Nathan and Imran Khan explore the pitfalls of excessive capital in companies, emphasizing that true innovation comes from solving problems, not just spending money. They discuss lessons from tech leaders like Scott McNealy and the impact of platform shifts - such as the internet, mobile apps, and now AI - on value creation. The conversation highlights key growth areas including digital workforce, transportation, space, fintech, and healthcare, and stresses the importance of execution, leadership, and finding idiosyncratic investment opportunities in tech’s next decade.
Checkout Imran's Podcast on Apple or Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/5fpxt868
Follow Imran on Twitter: https://x.com/dottkhan
Learn more about our sponsor CME Group and iConnections.
