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Stocks Near Highs, Yields Lower into Jobs Number
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, Sept 4th
RiskReversal Media
September 04, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks powered higher today, finishing just shy of all-time highs as traders shrugged off concerns amidst falling treasury yields ahead of tomorrow’s Jobs Report. Helping fuel the move the past two days were several of the “quieter” Mag7 names, with GOOGL/AAPL leading yesterday and AMZN today. SPX finished right at the important 6500 level. On the day: SPX +0.8%, QQQ +0.9%, and IWM +1.3%.
Elsewhere, yields lower with the US10YY now 4.16%, it’s lowest level since April’s scary move (this time for different reasons). Gold finally had a down day from all time highs. Oil was slightly lower. The VIX is just 15.30 into tomorrow’s Jobs Number as Sept rate cuts odds approach 100%.
Notable Gainers: MU +4.6%, AMZN +4.3%, LULU +3.8%, SHOP +3.5%, TROW +5.8%, GS +2.5%
Notable Losers: CRM -4.8%, TXN -4.3%, TTD -3.5%, EL -4.8%, KO -1.1%
After hours: LULU shares are -12% on earnings (they were +4% on the day into the print). AVGO beat but shares aren’t moving much initially on the numbers. DOCU is +6%.
MRKT Call: Liz, Guy, and Dan preview tomorrow’s jobs report, the nasty action in some big software names, plus a look at global bond yields, tariffs, and debt-to-GDP.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Peter Boockvar break down stock picks, jobs data, Google’s ruling, rate cuts, gold, Bitcoin, and even Live Nation ticket prices.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks close higher Thursday on hope jobs report won’t be too cold or too hot (CNBC)
Wall Street Strategists See More Unease on Fed Independence (Bloomberg)
Trump Asks Supreme Court to Quickly Uphold Global Tariffs (Bloomberg)
Holiday inventory levels are tea leaves to read the state of retailers and consumer spending (CNBC)
Bond investors count on Trump tariff revenues to rein in US debt (FT)
Apple Plans AI-Powered Web Search Tool for Siri to Rival OpenAI, Perplexity (Bloomberg)
Huawei Unveils New Trifold Phone in Show of Hardware Strength (Bloomberg)
China's BYD cuts sales target, sources say, as white hot growth cools (Reuters)
Tesla Says Its Robotaxi App Now Open to Public Riders (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
In a somewhat surprising development the past two days, SPX implied volatility has been falling into the jobs number—not just in the 30-day window VIX, but even for tomorrow’s session itself, with options only implying a 0.6% move. For recent context, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech had pricing of more than a 1% move. This is likely a reflection not only of the rally the past two days back near highs but also a now near-certain September rate cut no matter the data. (95% odds). Looking further out, SPX options are only pricing a 2% move from now through the rate decision itself, remarkably low. It may also be an assumption that equities continue to consolidate around SPX 6500 into the FOMC.
Tomorrow could test of those assumptions: an inline or strong jobs number may give bulls the green light to push through 6500 which could open us up to some FOMO action. A weak report is trickier—markets might initially cheer the chance of a more aggressive Fed, especially in rate-sensitive sectors, but it’d be interesting what would happen after that initial euphoria. IWM’s 1.4% expected move for tomorrow (which actually is high) may be the canary in the coal mine for where we’re likely to see the most volatility into rate cutting season. (TLT’s 0.9% expected move is also kinda high.)
Friday, Sept 5th
8:30am - Nonfarm Payrolls (75k, 4.3%)
Expected Moves: SPX 0.6%, QQQ 0.8%, IWM 1.4%, TLT 0.9%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Tick Higher Ahead Of Friday Job Report
Liz, Guy, and Dan preview tomorrow’s jobs report and what kind of number it would take to shift the Fed’s path. They also break down CRM’s earnings and the nasty action in other big software names like Adobe, plus a look at global bond yields, tariffs, and debt-to-GDP.
SoFi Weekly Report - Global bond yields on the rise and the ramifications. The spread between 2’s and 10’s increasing. Yet credit spreads calm.
Analysis - CRM, ADBE, IGV, PLTR, ORCL, MSFT, FIG, AFRM, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN
Your Questions:
Scott A - I have a question for the gang, will iPhone 17 sales be the first real indication of if A.I is monetizable?
Jack CF - Will apple announce the partnership with google next Tuesday?
Ziad Khalaf - Can you please talk about AMAZON? The stock is making interesting moves
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Can the Fed Calm Investors Before It’s Too Late?
Dan sits down with Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners (and The Boock Report) to talk Peter Lynch-style stock picks, the state of the labor market ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, the outlook for rate cuts and the economy. They also cover this week’s Google ruling, gold, Bitcoin, and even ticket pricing dynamics via Peter’s recent Live Nation concert experience.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi.
