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- Stocks Pause, Gold Finally Reverses, NFLX, TXN Lower After Hours.
Stocks Pause, Gold Finally Reverses, NFLX, TXN Lower After Hours.
RiskReversal Recap: October 21, 2025
RiskReversal Media
October 21, 2025
MARKET WRAP
It was a relatively quiet session for the indices, with the S&P 500 trading in a tight 30-point range and continuing to hover near its recent all-time highs. On the day: SPX unched, QQQ unched and IWM -0.5%
The standout story today came in gold, which finally pulled back from its epic run—down nearly -6% on the day, a historically large move but one that only erases last week’s huge gains. Bitcoin, which has been moving inversely to gold lately, rallied as the yellow metal sold off. The US10YY continues to creep lower, now 3.96%. Oil was quiet. The dollar rallied a bit. The VIX has been crushed the past few days now below 18, and short duration vol has fallen even more (more on that below.
Notable Gainers: GM +15.1%, HAL +12%, WBD +11.4%, MMM +7.4%, STLD +6.3%, LULU +5.4%, F +5.1%, RCL 4.8%, ADBE +4.2%
Notable Losers: GOOGL -2.2%, NEM -9.3%, PM -4.2%, EL -3.6%, LMT +3.2%, CEG -3%
After Hours: NFLX is lower by about -6% following its release. TXN is lowrr by about -7%. Both SPY and QQQ are lower from their close.
Today’s MRKT Call: Carter joins Guy to discuss the pullback in gold and silver, Bitcoin’s move versus gold, the S&P’s steady rally off the April lows, and key movers including Netflix, GOOGL, CRM, TLT, and GM.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Liz joins Guy to talk the regional bank concerns vs the big banks, golds rise and sudden volatility, and a look ahead at this Friday’s CPI.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow sets new record close just below 47,000 on strong Coca-Cola, 3M earnings (CNBC)
Gold tumbles 6% in biggest sell-off since 2013 (FT)
Trump Sees Successful Xi Meeting, But Allows It Might Not Happen (Bloomberg)
OpenAI launches an AI-powered browser: ChatGPT Atlas (TechCrunch)
Apple’s Planned Foldable iPad With 18-inch Screen Hits Development Snags (Bloomberg)
Amazon Plans to Replace More Than Half a Million Jobs With Robots (NYTimes)
Alibaba Cloud claims to slash Nvidia GPU use by 82% with new pooling system (South Morning China Post)
Warner Bros. Weighs Sale With Netflix, Comcast Eyeing Assets(Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Another theme this week has been the sharp drop in implied volatility. The VIX slid back below 18 after briefly spiking above 25 last week (and hitting 29 overnight Thursday into Friday before the bounce). Even more striking, short-duration implied vols—the kind tied to the next few trading days—have absolutely collapsed. Two-day SPX IVs are now near 10, up slightly to around 13 into Friday’s CPI release, down from levels as high as 30 during last week’s wild intraday swings. That shift supports the idea that much of last week’s turbulence was fueled by options positioning into Friday’s monthly expiration. With a lot of that short gamma now expired or rolled off, equities suddenly feel far more stable.
Earnings this week, including Netflix and Tesla, aren’t likely to disrupt that calm backdrop. The only potential wildcard before next week’s megacap reports is Friday’s CPI print—delayed and landing during a government shutdown, which could add an extra layer of confusion or surprise. The options market is pricing in slightly more risk around that release than most observers seem to expect.
Looking to tomorrow, the morning trade could be influenced by results from Netflix and Texas Instruments, while IBM and Tesla will report after the close. The macro calendar stays light once again.
Wednesday, October 22nd
Pre-market: T 4.4%
After-hours: TSLA 6.7%, IBM 6.3%, LRCX 6.7%
SPX expected move: 0.5% (had been pricing 1%+ moves last week)
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Carter Worth: Gold, Silver & SPX Chart Check
Carter joins Guy to break down today’s pullback in gold and silver and how the miners are reacting. They compare Bitcoin’s price action to gold, and look at the S&P’s steep rally off the April lows—which, relative to pre–tariff tantrum levels, isn’t unusual for the year. Plus, a Netflix earnings preview, GOOGL’s decline, software strength led by CRM’s recent bounce, and a check-in on TLT, GM, and more.
Analysis - Gold, Silver, GLD, SLV, GDX, NEM, SPX, VIX, NFLX, GOOGL, CRM, ADBE, TLT, GM
Your Questions
Matt Walter - gold vs bitcoin?
Scott A - Also last time we were at this level in the SPY (~Oct 8th) the RSI was Overbought, now we are at same level and RSI is 60 could Carter explain that?
Gary Webb - TSM has sold off since earnings, CBW, do you see semis as vulnerable? What would confirm a break in the uptrend?
Steve Lee - Can you update on GS technicals? It doesn’t seem to be participating.
Jack CF - Is this an all time high for GM? Its up 15% today. Holy shit
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Regional Banks Can’t Catch a Break
Guy Adami and Liz Thomas of SoFi discuss a range of topics including regional banks' performance, market volatility, private equity concerns, and gold's unprecedented rise. They delve into financial instability stemming from bankruptcies, fraud, and speculative leverage, stressing the systemic risks in non-bank financial institutions. The episode also highlights the divergence in regional versus large banks' performances, the implications on liquidity, and the broader economic outlook. Additionally, they explore the unexpected resilience and meteoric rise of gold, driven largely by central bank buying and investor sentiment, defying technical expectations. The podcast wraps up with a brief insight into CPI data and its anticipated market impact.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi and RBC Capital Markets.
