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Stocks Rally to Start the Week as Oil Pulls Back, But Only Slightly.
RiskReversal Recap: June 16, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 16, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened the week with a sharp rally, driven by a report that the Israel-Iran conflict may be short-lived. That was tempered somewhat as strikes continued and official word from both sides didn’t actually show immediate signs of de-escalation. Oil prices dipped but only slightly compared to their recent move higher, and equities gave back some of their gains as the session wore on. Still, it was a very good start to the week for stocks. On the day, SPX +.09%, QQQ +1.4% and IWM +1.2%.
Elsewhere, as mentioned Oil was lower by -2% but remains above $71. The US10YY is back up to 4.45% into Wednesday’s FOMC. Gold pulled back from Friday’s highs. DXY was volatile but ended the day unched, now $98.16. The VIX dipped below 20 to finish the day 19.11.
After hours: Fairly quiet after hours with SPY up a tick and QQQ down a tick from the close.
MRKT Call: A look at today’s rally on the potential de-escalation signals from the Middle East. Carter Worth joins to chart check Crude, SPX and a slew of individual tickers.
RiskReversal Pod: Conflict in the Middle East, its effects on the stock market, crude oil, the Fed, treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow rallies 300 points, oil retreats as investors bet Israel-Iran conflict will be contained (CNBC)
Senate to Unveil Trump Tax Bill Draft With SALT Fight Unresolved (Bloomberg)
Foreign Demand for Treasuries Is Showing ‘Cracks,’ BofA Says (Bloomberg)
Many Exporters No Longer Want Dollars, US Bank Executive Says (Bloomberg)
A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate (WSJ)
Red vs. Blue Is Dividing Stock Portfolios Like Never Before (WSJ)
AI Companies Should be Wary of Gulf Spending Spree (WSJ)
A $60 Billion Visa, Mastercard Slump Seen as Buying Opportunity (Bloomberg)
US to Ease Rules Hindering Tesla’s Self-Driving Cybercab (Bloomberg)
So Much for ‘Digital Gold’ (WSJ)
A Mark Benioff Protégé Has Morphed Into Salesforce’s Big Worry (The Information)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The rally today was largely on signals that the Israel-Iran conflict may be short lived and remain contained. However, oil prices only pulled back slightly on those hopes, not drastically. Implied volatility dropped, but it remains elevated compared to a week ago, not to mention in comparison to the actual, relatively narrow trading range the S&P 500 has traded in recent weeks.
That disconnect of a VIX hanging near 20 and a fairly range bound market suggests traders are still slightly on edge, even as we continue to consolidate. With geopolitics still in play and limited details on how the end of the 90 day tariff reprieve will be resolved it may be that market participants are still buying the dip, but adding a little bit of protection on some of the down days. All in all though, the SPX is holding its ground very well.
In short duration, SPX options are pricing about a 0.6% daily move, with a bit of an uptick for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. We’ll keep an eye on whether a 20-ish VIX is just PTSD following the major correction and reversal, or if it signals growing concerns following this huge rally from April’s lows.
For tomorrow:
Tuesday, June 17th
Pre-market: JBL 7%, TEN 7.5%
8:30am - Retail Sales
9:15am - Industrial Production
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Chart Check: Software and Semiconductors
A look at today’s rally on the potential de-escalation signals from the Middle East. Then Carter joins to chart check Crude, SPX and a slew of individual tickers. |
Analysis: SPX, Crude, USO, TLT, VIX, INTC, SMH, AMD, ASML, PLTR, IGV, MSFT, ORCL, TSLA, Dollar Yen, SOXX, QCOM, INTC, BKX, JPM, XLE, DXY, AAPL, GOOGL
Your Questions Answered:
Guy, spotted a big head & shoulders pattern looking at a 5-year chart of yen dollar. You have been talking about a breakdown is it going to finally crack big time?
Thoughts on the weak demand for Treasuries and the Dollar despite everything that happened since Thursday night? When does lack of strength start to mean defacto weakness?
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Israel-Iran Conflict’s Impact On Markets
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss various market and geopolitical developments such as the ongoing war in the Middle East, its effects on the stock market, crude oil prices, and the Fed's upcoming decisions regarding interest rates. They highlight the complex relationship between geopolitical events, market reactions, treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar. They also discuss the performance of regional banks, tech stocks, and the overall sentiment in the financial markets, with a focus on Microsoft's valuation and Bitcoin's role as a store of value.
