MARKET WRAP

Investors brushed off the latest tariff headlines, pushing equities higher and recovering most of Friday’s losses. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.25%, while small caps lagged slightly, up just 0.36%. Gold continues to hit new highs, while yields edged up slightly, with the 10-year now at 4.5%. Oil also climbed 2%. On today’s RiskReversal Pod, Liz joins to discuss gold, the upcoming CPI, and more. Meanwhile, on MRKT Call, Guy and Dan break down how investors are starting to ignore headlines, along with a look at S&P valuations, PANW earnings, and other key topics. Enjoy!

MRKT MATRIX: February 10, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Stocks rise, led by tech, as traders look past latest U.S. tariff threat (CNBC)

• Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum Imports (Bloomberg)

• China’s Strategy in Trade War: Threaten U.S. Tech Companies (WSJ)

• Front-Loading Tariffs Undercuts Trump’s Promise of Faster Growth (Bloomberg)

• For CEOs and Bankers, the Trump Euphoria Is Fading Fast (WSJ)

• Powell Heads for ‘Hyper-Charged’ Hearings Overshadowed by Trump (Bloomberg)

• Appaloosa’s David Tepper hikes his ‘everything’ China bet, loads up on Alibaba, JD.com and ETFs (CNBC)

• Buy Nvidia for a trade into earnings later this month, says Evercore ISI (CNBC)

• Can this really happen? (Peter Boockvar)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by MoneyLion

Is It Time To Buy Every Volatility Shock?

Guy and Dan kick off the discussion by examining the market’s reaction to tariff news over the weekend, as investors are already less sensitive to headline-driven volatility. Guy highlights today’s market movers, focusing on energy and banks, while Dan points out weakness in airline stocks after their strong six-month performance. Guy then analyzes bond yields and the TLT chart before transitioning to the dollar index. The Chart of the Day features gold hitting new highs and Bitcoin nearing its peak. Viewer questions begin with NEM into AEM, followed by The Call of the Day, which covers an NVDA upgrade ahead of its late-February earnings. More audience questions lead to an in-depth discussion on WMT, followed by a look at SPOT, which has missed revenue expectations in its last two reports. The conversation then shifts to a historical comparison of the S&P 500’s performance over the past 50 years relative to earnings growth. Additional questions cover PLTR, leading into an analysis of PANW ahead of earnings.

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group and SoFi

Key Investor Info: Inflation Concerns, Tech Sell-Offs & Gold's Surge

Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and SoFi's Liz Thomas recap last week's market activity, discussing the unexpected market sell-off and the role of CapEx spending in influencing mega-cap tech stock performance. They analyze sector-specific movements, interest rates, and the anticipated effects of upcoming economic data such as the CPI and PPI. The discussion also covers the role of central banks' gold buying, the impact of tariffs on economic growth, and potential shifts in consumer sentiment. Key earnings reports from companies like AMAT, John Deere, and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted, along with the broader implications for financial markets and various sectors. The episode concludes with insights into strategic M&A activity, the geopolitical landscape, and potential market volatility related to upcoming economic data reports.

What’s Next?

The VIX dropped back below 16 during today’s rally. A closer look at SPX options suggests that after this week’s CPI, traders anticipate a period of relative calm until NVDA reports earnings in the last week of February. Implied volatility for next week’s SPX sits near 11, which is about as low as it gets. (compare that to 15 IV for Wednesday’s CPI) While the upcoming three-day weekend plays a role, it also reflects some exhaustion after two months of extreme market swings that have ultimately led nowhere.

With three straight weeks of major headlines, traders seem to be growing more resistant to market-moving news—something Dan and Guy discussed on today’s MRKT Call. Right now, the market is positioning for a short-term lull in volatility. Whether that calm actually materializes remains to be seen, but with most mega-cap earnings behind us, the calendar has fewer major catalysts ahead. If this decline in option volatility plays out as expected, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as sold options generate gamma that can keep the market stuck in place, or create conditions for a slow grind higher short term. We’ll likely have more clarity post-CPI.


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