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Stocks Red After Brief New Highs, Finish Up on the Week.
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, August 15th
RiskReversal Media
August 15, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened higher but traders immediately faded the move and we mostly drifted lower the rest of the day. Small caps indices were the worst performer for the second straight day after a monster run of late. The Nasdaq was pulled down by AMAT and other semi equipment names. Despite late week selling, SPX was up nearly +1% on week and sits just shy of all time highs. For the day: SPX -0.3%, QQQ -0.5% and IWM -0.6%.
Elsewhere, yields crept higher again with the US10YY now 4.32%. Gold was quiet, with the dollar lower. Oil was lower as well. The VIX closed the week just above 15.
Notable Gainers: UNH +13%, FSLR +13%%, ENPH +10%, INTC +3.2%, CRM +3.9%, MRK +2%, AMGN +2%
Notable Losers: AMAT-14%, KLAC -8%, LRCX -7%, CSCO -4.7%, MU +3.3%, MMM -2.8%, CAT -2.4%
After hours: Both QQQ and SPY a tick lower after hours.
RiskReversal Pod: Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research joins to talk the current housing recession, job market, consumers, the AI spend’s contribution to growth, the Fed’s current focus, and more.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 falls slightly Friday, but on track for big weekly gain (CNBC)
Trump Says Semiconductor Tariffs Coming Soon, Could Reach 300% (Bloomberg)
Trump and Putin Have Different Goals for Anchorage Summit (Bloomberg)
‘It better be different this time’: BofA’s Hartnett says the S&P’s price-to-book valuation is higher than dotcom bubble top (CNBC)
US Retail Sales Climb in Broad Advance After Upward Revision (Bloomberg)
Chinese Economy’s Worst Month of 2025 Puts Stimulus Back in Play (Bloomberg)
The U.S. Is Discussing Taking a Stake in Intel (WSJ)
UnitedHealth Surges After Buffett, Tepper Bet on Turnaround (Bloomberg)
Rivian Says It Faces $100 Million Hole After Relaxation of Fuel Economy Rules (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
As flagged in yesterday’s preview, today was monthly options expiration, and with a heavy concentration of expiring contracts sitting right around current index levels, the options market was pricing in exceptionally low volatility. That effect likely muted both upside and downside moves the past two days and pinned the SPX right at 6450 on today’s close.
For the week, the SPX gained just shy of +1%, with nearly all of that coming after Tuesday’s CPI. The rest of the week featured a quick spike in volatility on Thursday following a much hotter-than-expected PPI, but dip buyers showed up once again. We finish the week just shy of a record SPX close and at extremely low volatility.
A Look Ahead
Looking ahead, next week brings FOMC Minutes and PMI data, but the main macro focus will be the Jackson Hole Symposium starting Thursday. On the earnings front, big-box retail takes the stage with HD, TGT, and WMT set to report. We’ll follow up with a full preview of the week ahead on Sunday.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Neil Dutta: Housing Recession, Strained Consumers & The AI Fueled Mania
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host Neil Dutta, partner and Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research. Neil shares his career journey, his time at NYU, and his experience working with David Rosenberg and Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch. The conversation covers current economic issues including the US housing market recession, labor market dynamics, and the impact of restrictive monetary policy. Neil also discusses the significant investment in AI and its potential to boost GDP growth. The discussion touches on the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation over employment, the global interest rate environment, and the potential risks concerning AI investment momentum. Neil offers his market outlook, focusing on defensive strategies and the potential future direction of interest rates.
Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 4:15 - Housing 10:55 - Consumer 18:30 - Fed Speak 22:45 - AI Growth 30:00 - Market Outlook
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