MARKET WRAP

Another small rally into what will be a couple of news packed trading sessions. On the day SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.8% and IWM flat. Of special note into the tariff deadline and Friday’s jobs number is the 10yr yield, down again today to 4.17%, its lowest level since December. Gold and Oil had fairly quiet days. The VIX remains near 22, with short duration volatility extremely high for the next 3 trading days (more on that at the bottom of the email).

• RiskReversal Pod: Danny Moses is back to chat deregulation, tariffs, the potential for stagflation and the rising delinquency rates in various credit sectors.

• MRKT Call: the tariff deadline, airline stocks, GDX, GLD and much more. Enjoy!

MRKT MATRIX: April 1, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 rallies into the green Tuesday in more volatile trading ahead of tariff rollout (CNBC)

• White House considering roughly 20% tariff on most imports, report says (CNBC)

• US Automakers Make Mad Dash to Push Trump to Temper Tariffs (Bloomberg)

• Airline stocks slide as concerns grow over consumers’ travel appetite (CNBC)

• US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investors (Bloomberg)

• Nasdaq 100’s Worst Quarter in Years Sealed by AI Bubble Fears (Bloomberg)

• SoftBank Group Agrees to Lead $40 Billion Funding for OpenAI (WSJ)

• Zuckerberg Tries to Enlist Trump in Fight Against Meta EU Ruling (WSJ)

• Shares of conservative cable channel Newsmax soar another 100% after massive debut (CNBC)

• Wells Fargo adds Tesla to tactical underweight list, sees no rebound after rough first quarter (CNBC)

• Elon Musk’s Megadeal Between X and xAI Breaks Wall Street’s Rulebook (WSJ)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by FactSet

Traders Brace for Tariff Tantrum

Coverage of the tariff deadline and whether the bounces the past two days show traders now anticipating a water downed announcement. On the flipside, what are yields signaling? Long discussions on Gold including repatriation of physical gold. The show wraps up with a look at banks and 

• Analysis: SPY, US10Y, VIX, NVDA, CRWV, UAL, DAL, AVGO, BKX, GM

• Chart of the Day: INTC

• Call of the Day: Jeffries downgrade the Airlines (AAL, DAL, LUV)

• Your Questions:

  • Better robotaxi play, UBER or GOOGL?

  • Thoughts on NXPI?

  • GLD and GDX into tariff liberation day?
    

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Current and RBC

What Q1 Taught Us: Tariffs, Stagflation & The Market Reset

Guy Adami and special guest Danny Moses discuss the significant market volatility of the first quarter of 2025 and its implications. They delve into topics such as deregulation, tariffs, and their impact on the U.S. and European stock markets. The conversation also covers the potential for stagflation, the importance of upcoming job reports, and the rising delinquency rates in various credit sectors. They touch upon the political dynamics between the private sector and government, including Mark Zuckerberg's attempts to influence U.S. policies. Additionally, they examine the semiconductor industry's performance and the strategic moves by companies like Nvidia and SoftBank. The episode wraps up with a look at Tesla's volatile stock performance and its polarizing influence on investors.

Timecodes 

• 0:00 - Q1 Recap

• 8:00 - Stagflation & Recession

• 16:00 - Semis

• 17:45 - META

• 19:45 - CRWV

• 23:35 - TSLA

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What’s Next?

Tomorrow marks the tariff deadline, but we've learned that any official announcement will come only after trading hours (Now after 4pm eastern later than the originally expected 3pm) This delay shifts most of the potential market reaction to Thursday, further concentrating volatility into the final two days of the week.

One notable anomaly in tomorrow’s pricing can be seen in the difference between SPY and SPX expected moves. SPX is pricing in just under a 1% move for the day, while SPY options are pricing a 1.2% move, accounting for the possibility of after-hours headlines.

For traders with options expiring tomorrow in ETFs like SPY and QQQ, extra caution is needed, as these instruments can continue moving after hours. Those without expiring positions should simply be prepared for heightened volatility on Thursday morning.

The action doesn’t stop there—Friday morning brings the key jobs report. SPX options are currently pricing about a 2% move into Friday’s close, with SPX implied volatility (IV) now 30 on Thursday and Friday (from 20 just days ago). Based on today’s close, the expected price range into Friday’s close is approximately 5500 to 5750.

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