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Stocks Shake off Headlines, Grind Higher
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, Dec 3rd
RiskReversal Media
December 03, 2025
MARKET WRAP
The major indices grinded higher, shrugging off some morning weakness on a bad ADP miss, as well as a news story that had MSFT lower on worries around AI. MSFT denied the story but still finished in the red. The ADP print took rate cut expectations for next week even higher (now 90%) and that really juiced small caps in particular. On the day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ +0.2% and IWM +1.9%
Elsewhere, yields were lower for the second straight day, with the US10YY now back to 4.06%. BTC’s recent bounce held, now $93k. Oil and Gold were both slightly higher. Volatility continues to get crushed with the VIX briefly with a 15 handle before closing 16.11.
Today’s Notable Action: Most sectors were higher today with the exception of tech, which was more mixed. the majority of the Mag7+ names were actually in the red today, though off the lows from the initial MSFT news.
After Hours Moves: CRM is +4% and SNOW is -5% immediately following their earnings prints.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan, Guy, and Robinhood’s Michael Obuscino on last week’s equity melt-up and VIX slide, a deep dive into Energy including a new trade in XLE. NFLX, SPOT, and SNDK, and takeaways from the Burry/Lewis interview and what it means in NVDA and PLTR.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow rises 400 points as weak ADP jobs report spurs rate cut hopes (CNBC)
Payrolls at US Companies Fall by Most Since 2023, ADP Says (Bloomberg)
Bad jobs report caused by shutdown, deportations — not tariffs, Lutnick says (CNBC)
Bessent says Trump admin will be able to replicate tariffs even if it loses Supreme Court decision (CNBC)
Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair (FT)
Microsoft Lowers AI Software Growth Targets as Customers Resist Newer Products (The Information)
Nvidia’s Fat Margins Are Google and AMD’s Opportunity (WSJ)
Nvidia Scores Lobbying Win as Congress Rejects Chip Export Bill (Bloomberg)
Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public (FT)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Another grind higher for the major indices today, and over the past few sessions we’ve seen slight changes each day on who’s doing the heavy lifting. Yesterday it was tech and the crypto-adjacent names propping up an otherwise mixed tape; today it flipped, with tech more muted while most other sectors pushed solidly green.
Volatility continued to collapse, which—for now—keeps the conditions for a continued slow melt up by the major indices. After a brief consolidation following the +5% Thanksgiving snapback in the SPX, today was felt like a little bit of a breakout, but there was a tiny bit of weakness into the close, so we’ll see.
As for how long the calm lasts? We’re now just a week out from the December FOMC decision, and the rapid vol crush since the bounce likely has options underpricing that event. It’s worth remembering that the last Fed meeting basically started the volatility we’ve been working through, after Powell pushed back on the idea of multiple guaranteed cuts. Any similar surprise next week—hawkish or dovish—could either knock this year-end rally off its tracks or turbocharge it. And on the “turbocharge” side, 7,000 on the SPX is still very real overhead resistance, so it’s going to take a lot of fuel to punch through that level.
For tomorrow, initial jobless claims (consensus 220k) plus earnings from Kroger, Dollar General and Docusign. The daily expected move is the lowest we’ve seen in a month:
Thursday, Dec 4th
Pre-market: KR 5%, DG 7%
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims (220k)
After-hours: DOCU 9%, RBRK 13%, ULTA 7%
SPX Expected Move: 0.4%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Microsoft Sell Pressure Drags On Markets
Dan and Guy break down today’s choppy tape and MSFT’s initial weakness. Michael Obucina from Robinhood joins to talk about last week’s melt-up in equities and the slide in the VIX. They spend some time on Energy, including a new trade in XLE. Dan brings up his Fast Money final trade in NFLX with it down today, but also a checkin on SPOT. They hit SNDK’s recent pullback and wrap with thoughts on Michael Burry’s interview with Michael Lewis, plus what it all might mean for names like NVDA and PLTR.
Analysis - SPX, SPY, MSFT, VIX, Oil, XLE, NFLX, SPOT, SNDK, NVDA, PLTR
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