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Stocks Shrug Off Economic Numbers. MSFT and META Report.
RiskReversal Recap: April 30, 2025
RiskReversal Media
April 30, 2025
MARKET WRAP
The S&P 500 ended slightly higher on the day (and flat on the month), holding up better than expected despite a batch of worrisome (if not stagflationary) economic data released before the open. The early weakness found buyers, suggesting the market either still has a sneaky bid, had end of the month window dressing (into MSFT and META), is thinking we’re past the worst of trade war threats, or all of the above. On the day SPX +0.2%, QQQ +0.1% and IWM -0.6% .
Elsewhere, the 10Y yield spiked on the GDP/PCE numbers but spent of the rest of the day going the other way, now down to 4.15%. The oil decline continues, down more than -3% and now near $58. VIX spiked on the open but closed the day back below 25.
After hours: Microsoft and Meta were the big ones and both are higher after hours. MSFT +6% and META +4% (conference calls to come).
MRKT Call: A look at today’s GDP/PCE numbers and the reaction in equities. Growth is slowing and inflation is sticky as more mega cap earnings and the jobs number lies ahead.
RiskReversal Pod: Steve Milunovich joins Dan to talk tech market cycles, Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Nvidia and the challenges of identifying future market leaders.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 ticks higher but still posts losing month (CNBC)
Here’s What Is Driving the Rapid Reversal of the Historic Market Selloff (WSJ)
Trump Bashes Powell, Touts Tariffs at Rally Marking 100 Days (Bloomberg)
China’s Export Orders Plunge, Hit by Trump’s Trade War (WSJ)
Trade-War Uncertainty Prompts Wave of Companies to Yank Forecasts (WSJ)
Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations (CNBC)
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warns China is ‘not behind’ in AI (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Over the next few weeks, investors should be prepared for a wave of conflicting and potentially misleading signals from both macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports. We’re now entering a stretch where the impact of “pull-forward” behavior — by both consumers rushing to buy goods before tariff hikes and companies front-loading supply chains — is starting to show up in the numbers. That means stronger-than-expected sales or activity might not actually indicate organic strength, but rather artificial demand that borrowed from future quarters. On the flip side, certain companies may begin guiding more cautiously, not just because of current weakness, but due to the uncertainty around how sustainable demand will be now that the pull-forward has passed.
Layered on top of that is the market’s ongoing adjustment to shifting trade war rhetoric. Much of the recent rally has been built on the perception that the worst-case scenario — severe, long-lasting tariffs — may be avoided. But that softening stance may already be reflected in current prices. If so, any further headlines may have less positive effect, while a return to hardline positions could hit risk assets quickly. The problem is that the data we’re about to get — both from companies and the government — doesn’t come with a clear label explaining how much of it reflects temporary distortions versus lasting trends. In that sense, we may be flying blind for a bit, navigating markets that are moving on sudden sentiment shifts and speculation rather than clarity. Historically, that kind of murky backdrop tends to lead to more volatility, not less. It’s a market that demands caution, flexibility, and a willingness to question even the most upbeat, or dire headlines.
Thursday, May 1:
7:30am - Challenger Job Cuts
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
10am - ISM Manufacturing
Earnings Pre-Market: LLY 5% , MCD 3%, MA 3%
Earnings After Hours: AAPL 4.5%, AMZN 6.3%, RIOT 8% , RDDT 12.5%, ROKU 13%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: GDP Shock Sinks Stocks
A look at today’s GDP/PCE numbers and the reaction in equities. Growth is slowing and inflation is sticky as more mega cap earnings and the jobs number lies ahead. |
John Butters’ Earnings Insight: 50% through S&P 500 earnings and growth is nearly 11%.
Analysis: SPX, US10YY, TLT, DXY, EWZ, EWL, NVDA, SMCI, SBUX, GOOGL, GOLD, Yacht rock.
Your Questions Answered:
Dan, any plays on SNAP after the earnings drop?
Would you rather? EWL (all time high) or EWZ?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Listen to RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Tech Wreck Scar Tissue & AI Hype with Steve Milunovich
Dan Nathan is joined by seasoned analyst Steve Milunovich. Steve, who has a rich history as a sell-side analyst at Merrill Lynch and other institutions, discusses the various technological waves spanning from the centralized computing era of mainframes to the current generative AI boom. |
They dive deep into the historical context of tech market cycles, including the dot-com bubble and the rise of mobile, social, and cloud computing. Steve shares his insights on the role of major tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Nvidia in these cycles and the challenges of identifying future market leaders. The episode also explores frameworks for investing in individual companies, highlighting key differentiation strategies and the evolving nature of tech ecosystems. Finally, Dan and Steve reflect on the entrepreneurial legacies of Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment and iConnections.
