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Stocks Slightly Lower Friday, Flat on the Week.
RiskReversal Recap: Friday July 20th
RiskReversal Media
June 20, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks began the day rallying on a CNBC interview with Fed governor Waller where he mentioned that a July rate cut could still be in play, only to give up those gains and close the day slightly in the red. That put the finishing touches on a week that saw SPX essentially flat, trading in a very tight range despite a decent amount of news.
On the Day: SPX -0.2%, QQQ -0.4% and IWM -0.2%. It was a fairly quiet day in other assets. The 10YY was down a tick, now 4.38% . Oil has seemingly found a home for now until more is known on the situation in the Middle East, closing the week near $75. Gold was down slightly. The VIX closed lower, now 20.50. (The VIX was one of the only volatile things this week, with a 19-23 range). Today marked a very large expiration in options and futures that has the potential to add some equity volatility back into the mix as soon as next week.
After hours: Both QQQ and SPY are a tick higher after the close.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 slips a day after holiday as traders weigh next moves by the Fed and Trump (CNBC)
Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July (CNBC)
Microsoft Plans to Cut Thousands More Employees (WSJ)
The Real Message Andy Jassy Is Sending to Employees on AI (WSJ)
Silicon Valley’s ‘Tiny Team’ Era is Here (Bloomberg)
Masa Son Pithes $1 Trillion US AI Hub to TSMC, Trump Team (Bloomberg)
Employees Terrified of ICE Raids Are Failing to Show Up at Work (Bloomberg)
Who are the companies hoarding bitcoin? (Financial Times)
Japan Surprises With Bigger Cut to Super-Long Bond Issuance (Bloomberg)
US Tariff Spike Hits China’s Small Parcels, Squeezing Exporters (Bloomberg)
Surging Silver Prices Prompt Americans to Empty Jewelry Boxes and Coin Jars (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Weekly Recap: SPX Trapped in Tight Range into Large Expiration, Despite Fed, Geopolitics.
It was a remarkably quiet week for U.S. equities on the surface, as the S&P 500 held within a tight 100-point range and finished nearly unchanged, despite potential market-moving headlines.
Geopolitical tensions continued, and the Fed delivered its latest policy update on Wednesday. As expected, the FOMC held rates steady, but there were potentially concerning signals for those looking towards future rate cuts as they downgraded growth forecasts for the remainder of the year while nudging inflation projections higher. Still, neither the equity nor bond markets reacted much at all. The 10-year Treasury dipped slightly on the week, and intraday volatility in rates was fairly muted. The U.S. dollar (DXY) edged higher, but like rates, showed a notable contraction in volatility compared to prior weeks. Oil has paused its volatility somewhat.
As we discussed in the lead-up to this week, today’s large options expiration was likely to suppress volatility near the SPX 6000 level — and that’s exactly how it played out. The index effectively drifted within a narrow band centered on that round number, with little urgency in either direction, as was the case for the past two weeks.
Looking ahead, the expiration of this options complex may free up the market to move more. While post-expiry weeks don’t always result in higher volatility, they tend to be more vulnerable to directional moves, especially if a change in sentiment or fresh news catalyst emerges. With the dampening effects of options positioning now largely behind us, next week could offer more clarity on the next market trend.
We’ll be back this weekend with a preview of next week’s catalysts. Check your inbox Sunday!
