MARKET WRAP

Stocks surged on Monday, with the S&P 500 rallying back to its 200-day moving averages and the Nasdaq 100 just shy. The rally was largely a reaction to less negative than expected leaks on tariffs over the weekend, providing some relief ahead of the April 2nd deadline. This key technical level now serves as a pivotal point for what’s next. For the day: SPX/SPY +1.8%, QQQ +2.2%, IWM +2.6%. The VIX continues to get slammed and is now 17.50.

Adding to the evidence that tariffs are the main factor in growth slowdown worries, both treasuries yields and oil were higher alongside equities: 10Y +0.08 to 4.34% and Oil up 1.4%, now just shy of $70.

• On today’s MRKT Call. What’s next for the equities and answering a ton of your questions, including the dollar, a debate on Gold and more.

• On RiskReversal Pod, is this the end of tariff noise, does the administration care more about stocks than they’ve let on?

MRKT MATRIX: March 24, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Dow rallies 500 points to start week on hopes Trump is softening tariff stance (CNBC)

• Stumbling Stock Market Raises Specter of Dot-Com Era Reckoning (Bloomberg)

• Data-Hungry Investors Dive Deep for Economic Clues (WSJ)

• The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey finds (CNBC)

• Trump Plans His Tariff ‘Liberation Day’ With More Targeted Push (Bloomberg)

• Trump Says Auto Tariff Coming, Teases Reciprocal Duty Breaks(Bloomberg)

• Fed’s Bostic Now Sees Just One Rate Cut This Year Due to Tariffs (Bloomberg)

• FBI launches Tesla threats task force (CNBC)

• BYD Sales Top Tesla as Tech Focus Wins Over Chinese Drivers (Bloomberg)

• Google’s $32 billion Wiz deal may signal a turning point for slow IPO, M&A markets (CNBC)

• Jack Ma-Backed Ant Touts AI Breakthrough Using Chinese Chips (Bloomberg)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by MoneyLion

Stock Market Rally: Is This The Trump Put?

On today’s show Guy and Dan analyze today’s rally with the SPX/SPY back to their 200 day moving averages. They check-in on treasury yields into a discussion on inventories and whether we’ll see margin compressions in retail. A look at homebuilders and XHB. And an update on recent performance by sectors, calls of the day in Big Box Home Improvement, chart of the day in Starbucks and then a ton of viewer questions:

• Call of the Day: HD and LOW

• Chart of the Day: SBUX

• Your Questions:

  • What do you think of the 10Y back above 4.31%?

  • Why is TSLA up so much today?

  • What do you think of XLE?

  • Thoughts on the dollar/DXY?

  • Has Gold peaked?

  • Thoughts on ABT?

  • Do you think we’ll hear hyper-scalers cut CapEx this qtr?
    

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group and SoFi

Is This The "Trump Put" Markets Have Been Waiting For?

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss recent market trends, economic indicators and touch on the today’s positive market movements such as rising stocks, yields, and gold prices, alongside a decrease in the VIX. The discussion covers nuances around tariffs and their market impact, recent earnings reports, and analysts' upgrades and downgrades. Key highlights include insights from Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson on a potentially tradable rally and sector performance analysis, particularly in tech and financials. The conversation also explores the competitive landscape in retail with stocks like Nike, FedEx, Micron, and Boeing, and assesses the effects of recent updates in Chinese equities and other industry sectors.

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What’s Next?

Today's rally was strong across the board, largely driven by tariff news that was less negative than expected—arriving a full week ahead of the April 2nd deadline. However, the final outcome remains uncertain, as markets will need to assess both the resolution of tariffs and the economic damage caused by the period of uncertainty.

From a technical and market structure standpoint, today’s rally brought us to a critical level. The 200-day moving averages versus today's closes:

• SPX: MA: $5755 | Close: $5767

• SPY: MA: $574 | Close: $574

• QQQ: MA: $494 | Close: $490

SPX and SPY have already reached this level, while QQQ remains just a few points shy. In addition to these technical markers, a key market structure pivot is also occurring in this zone. Over the past two weeks, the market had been stuck in a tight consolidation range due to significant overhead supply, much of which was cleared during last weekend’s options expiration. Today’s rally capitalized on this, as much of the open interest in the 5600-5700 range had expired.

However, this new area introduces a shift in market conditions. While it may not outright prevent further upside, it has the potential to slow the rally to a grind. A key indicator to watch is the VIX, which has already declined to 17.50 today. If it continues to drop, we could see a further surge in option selling, especially as traders look to minimize losses from the high premiums from just two weeks ago. This kind of action tends to compress day-to-day market movement. (The one factor that renders that analysis useless is if we get a massive headline like “just kidding, no tariffs”.)

On the flip side, the 5650-5700 SPX zone is likely to attract buyers. BUT, if the market reverses downward (from the 200-day moving average) and those support levels fail to hold, today’s rally could prove to be a head fake, with the potential for lower lows ahead. (This too, is largely news dependent over the next week.)



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