MARKET WRAP

It was a volatile and ultimately downbeat week for stocks, culminating with a sharp drop today on a worse than expected jobs print, new tariffs taking effect, and a general sense that an economic slowdown is much more possible than markets were pricing just days ago. On the day: SPX -1.6%, QQQ -2.0%, and IWM -2.1%.

Elsewhere, the big story was the big drop in yields with the 10YY down -15 bips to 4.21%, and now back to late April levels. Oil also declined while gold was higher. The VIX spiked, closing at 20.38, but off its highs of day near 22.

Notable Gainers: JNJ +1.6%, KO +1.4%, BIIB +3.1%, FSLR +5.2%, DHI +5.2%

Notable Losers: AMZN -8.2%, AAPL -2.5%, COIN -16.7%, MRVL -7.4%, MSTR -8.8%

After hours: Both SPY and QQQ a tick higher after the close

• Generation Money: The TRUTH About College Tuition in 2025

• RiskReversal Pod: Brian ⁠Kelly, Founder & CEO of BKCM and author of 'The Bitcoin Big Bang’ joins to talk the current macro environment, interest rates, the yen, yuan and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, with the Bitcoin bull case changes over the years.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Dow tumbles 500 points as weak jobs data, new tariffs spark sell-off (CNBC)

• S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 1, 2025 (FactSet)

• U.S. Hiring Was Weak in July, With 73,000 Jobs Added (WSJ)

• Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets (CNBC)

• Fed Governor Kugler is resigning, giving Trump a nominee on committee that sets interest rates (CNBC)

• Trump Tariff Blitz Unleashes Delayed Shock to Global Economy (Bloomberg)

• Apple posts strong earnings but tariff fears spook investors (FT)

• Big Tech’s $400 Billion AI Spending Spree Just Got Wall Street’s Blessing (WSJ)

• Silicon Valley’s New Strategy: Move Slow and Build Things (WSJ) 

• Bridgewater Founder Dalio Sells His Remaining Stake in Firm (Bloomberg)

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Week That Was

This week saw volatility steadily ticking higher as we moved through megacap earnings, Powell’s post-Fed comments, a slightly hot PCE print, an ugly jobs number, and the start of new global tariffs. It all added up to about a -2.5% move lower for the S&P on the week. Not too far off the highs (made yesterday!) and no reason to panic yet.

But, the tone really started to shift on Wednesday. Powell’s press conference made it pretty clear that tariff-driven inflation fears are keeping the Fed cautious on cuts — unless the labor market weakens in a meaningful way. That message hit September rate cut odds hard and stocks sold off. But that negativity got papered over thanks to META and MSFT earnings, which gapped us higher Thursday morning. That bounce didn’t stick, setting the stage for today’s move.

Today brought slowing growth fears back into the market for the first time in a few months: a weaker-than-expected jobs print, downward revisions to prior months, and more tariffs kicking in. The reaction was telling, yields sank, oil slid, and stocks dropped. It was the kind of moves that suggest that even if the Fed could pivot dovish (September rate cut odds spiked higher today)… it may not be for reasons investors like.

What’s Ahead

We’ll know more in coming weeks, but we are entering a period that typically starts to see seasonal volatility return, and this week may have been the kick-off party. We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of next week’s catalysts.

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Brian Kelly on AI Overbuild & Wall Street's Embrace of Bitcoin

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by ⁠Brian ⁠Kelly, Founder & CEO of BKCM and author of 'The Bitcoin Big Bang.' The episode covers Brian's journey into the world of Bitcoin, starting around 2010, and his significant contributions to the cryptocurrency space. The discussion touches on the current macroeconomic environment, including the implications of trade tariffs, the current state of interest rates, and the potential impact of shifting global currencies such as the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. Brian and the hosts also delve into the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, examining how the pillars of the Bitcoin bull case have changed over the years and the role of institutional investors. The conversation expands to discuss the regulatory environment, the role of stable coins, and potential future scenarios for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Throughout, Brian offers insights on the intersection of traditional finance and digital assets, emphasizing the transformative potential of Bitcoin and blockchains.

Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 4:45 - Japan Red Flags 8:45 - Trade War Risks 12:15 - Fed Browbeating 14:30 - Earnings Read 17:00 - Gold 18:15 - Bitcoin 27:05 - BTC Treasuries 31:25 - Stable Coins 39:15 - Adoption Catalyst 41:15 - Missing Point

Checkout 'The Daily Spark': https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-dai...

Learn more about our sponsor CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood.

Generation Money: The TRUTH About College Tuition in 2025

Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past podcast episodes? Go to wherever you get your podcasts and type in “RiskReversal Media”

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions