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Tech and Crypto Have a Good Tuesday
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, Dec 2nd
RiskReversal Media
December 02, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks bounced today after yesterday’s modest pullback, though trading was a bit mixed under the surface. There was a little bit of selling into the close that kept the day from being better and even took small caps slightly into the red. On the day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ +0.8% and IWM -0.2%.
Elsewhere treasuries were calmer than yesterday but yields were mostly red, the US10YY is just below 4.09%. Gold gave back a little of its recent rip towards highs. Oil was lower as well. On the crypto side, the last few days are starting to look like a bit of a capitulation, with a big bounce today. But with bitcoin’s personality it likely needs to get back to $100k to completely end its recent volatility, it’s now just shy of $92k. The VIX closed today at 16.60.
After Hours: MRVL is lower by about -7% following earnings, CRWD is unchanged, conference calls to come.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan, Guy, and Katie Stockton break down early tech strength versus soft consumer staples, shifting treasury yields, the yen carry trade, gold’s overbought setup, a particular buy signal in BTC flashing for the first time since 2022, and wrap with chart checks on GOOGL, storage names, and a range of retail and tech heavyweights.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Liz break down Japan’s shifting economic landscape and its global market impact, while also touching on crypto, consumer sentiment, small caps, key data ahead, and Liz’s upcoming mid-December outlook with Mario.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks rebound as bitcoin bounces, tech shares gain (CNBC)
How a Japanese rate hike could affect markets (Axios)
Costco sues Trump admin seeking tariff refunds before Supreme Court rules if they’re illegal (CNBC)
Holiday shopping turnout jumps to 202.9 million people during Thanksgiving weekend, NRF says (CNBC)
Gen Z Shoppers Aren’t Spending Like Retailers Need Them To (WSJ)
OpenAI Declares ‘Code Red’ as Google Threatens AI Lead (WSJ)
Comcast’s Bid Seeks to Merge NBCUniversal With Warner Bros. (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Tech and crypto names did a lot of the heavy lifting today, but there was solid participation elsewhere—industrials had a good showing, with Boeing standing out in particular.
As for where we sit in the broader rally, we’re now nearly +5% off last week’s lows in the S&P and up an eye-popping +40% from the worst of those intraday levels back in April—yet all that still only leaves us up about +14% on the year. With prior highs now in reach, 7,000 on the SPX is just about 2.5% away and an obvious December target for bulls. But as we’ve been hammering on, that zone is packed with overhead supply, so while another 2.5% push seems doable, actually breaking through it by year-end could be the tougher ask until that overhead supply clears in the final days of 2025.
Looking ahead, tomorrow is the busiest earnings day of the week: Macy’s and Dollar Tree before the open, and Salesforce and Snowflake after-hours. It’s also an interesting day on the data front as we get ADP numbers. Short duration vol remains steady with about a 0.5% expected move for SPX:
Wednesday, Dec 2nd (Consensus)
Pre-market: M 10%, DLTR 8%
8:15am - ADP Employment (5k)
10am - ISM Services (52.1)
10:30am - ECB Lagarde Speech
After-hours: CRM 7%, SNOW 9%, AI 11%, PATH 12%
SPX Expected Move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Rebound After Bloody Monday
Dan and Guy kick things off with today’s strength in tech and software, contrasted with weakness in consumer staples and whether the consumer is feeling rising household debt strain. Katie Stockton joins to break down the latest moves in treasury yields, followed by a broader look at the yen carry trade, gold’s overbought setup, and bitcoin flashing a particular buy signal for the first time since 2022. The show wraps with GOOGL’s parabolic run, SNDK and other storage names finally correcting, and quick chart checks on Costco, Walmart, Netflix, Oracle, and more.
Analysis - SPX, IGV, US10YY, TLT, Gold, GOOGL, SNDK, COST, WMT, NFLX, MSTR, ORCL
Your Questions
William Jamison What does Guy think about that Giants field goal attempt?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Is Japan About To Cause A Global Financial Crisis?
Guy Adami sits down with Liz Thomas of SoFi to cover everything from the state of the Green Bay Packers to Japan’s shifting economic landscape and its global implications. They dig into rising Japanese bond yields, the strengthening yen, and what those moves could mean for U.S. bonds and equities, with Liz laying out the ripple effects for American investors and the increasingly interconnected financial system. The conversation also hits on crypto’s recent behavior, consumer sentiment, small-cap performance, and the key economic data on deck. They wrap with a preview of Liz and Mario’s mid-December outlook report.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi and RBC Capital Markets.
