MARKET WRAP

Without a doubt the most volatile and panicky day thus far in the correction. The weekend reactions and Monday’s open should be one for the books (options are pricing a 3% move for Monday morning.) Today saw retaliation from China, and a speech by Jerome Powell that was essentially “whaddya want from me???”.

On the day SPX -6%, QQQ -6% and IWM -4.5%. Oil continues to get wrecked, down -6% on the day and -12% in the past two. The 10Y yield was lower again and is now flirting with a 3 handle, closing at 4.0%. The VIX is now 45, indicating some panic entering the scene for investors after a few weeks of orderly, albeit steep, declines. More on the week that was at the bottom of the email.

• Today: A Very Special Edition of The RiskReversal Pod with Dan Nathan, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins trying to make sense of the current state of market and what’s next.

MRKT MATRIX: April 4, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Dow drops 2,200 points Friday, S&P 500 loses 10% in 2 days as Trump's tariff rout deepens (CNBC)

• Trade War Triggers Record Dash for Bearish Bets (WSJ)

• Oil Sinks to Four-Year Low on OPEC Supply Hit and Tariff Turmoil (Bloomberg)

• JPMorgan raises recession odds for this year to 60% (CNBC)

• Chief Strategist Who Foresaw Tariff Shock Says Worst Yet to Come (Bloomberg)

• Traders betting Fed will cut rates at least 4 times this year to bail out economy (CNBC)

• Powell Says Fed in No Hurry to Cut as Markets Continue to Swoon(Bloomberg)

• Hedge Funds Frazzled by Tariff Chaos Weigh Sitting It Out (Bloomberg)

• Ted Cruz Sees Risk of ‘Political Bloodbath’ if Trump’s Trade Gambit Fails (WSJ)

• Markets Are Crashing but Will Recover From Tariffs Shock, Rubio Says(WSJ)

• Trump extends TikTok deadline for the second time (CNBC)

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood

Markets In Turmoil with Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins & Danny Moses

Dan Nathan, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins discuss the current state of the stock market in this special edition of the Risk Reversal Podcast. The episode focuses on Thursday's market downturn, with the S&P down 4%, the NASDAQ down 5%, and a significant increase in the VIX. The panel delves into the implications of unexpected tariff announcements, the uncertainty facing companies like Nike, and the broader economic impact. They also touch on potential sectors to invest in, the effects on consumer behavior, and the future of major tech companies amid these turbulent times. Through a mix of analysis and spirited debate, the hosts provide insights into navigating the current economic landscape.

Timecodes

• 0:00 - Decoding The News

• 5:10 - 2008 Vibes

• 10:45 - Big Picture

• 26:20 - Credit

• 30:35 - Sectors To Watch

• 40:45 - Mag7

• 44:45 - Jobs & Fed Rates

• 49:05 - Tesla

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What’s Next?

Let’s take stock of the damage this week. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -9%, with more than -10% of that loss occurring in just the last two trading sessions. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell around 10%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) was down even more. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield declined from 4.25% to 4.00%, oil slipped from $70 to $63, and the VIX doubled—from 21 to 45. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

Expect tariff-related headlines over the weekend, likely in tweet form. Monday could bring more substantial news, but we may be approaching “peak tariff headline” days. While the market will likely continue to react to headlines in the short term—even potentially with some sharp rallies—investors are likely to start shifting their attention to the broader economic picture and the damage done following such a dramatic shock.

We’ll be back Sunday with a look ahead at next week’s trading. Believe it or not, we dive right back into earnings season—with some of the big banks reporting on Friday.

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