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The Hangover – Equities Fade Following Friday’s Party
RiskReversal Recap: August 25, 2025
RiskReversal Media
August 25, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened lower following Friday’s Jackson Hole surge but almost immediately attempted a grind higher that briefly took the S&P 500 back to unchanged on the day. That intraday rally attempt ultimately failed, with a particularly weak closing print. On the day: SPX -0.4%, QQQ -0.3% and IWM -1.0%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY failed to follow through on Friday’s move, back to 4.28%. Oil with another move higher, now $64.80. DXY reversed almost all of Friday’s move, now $98.45. The VIX was bounced to 14.80, but still quite low historically.
Notable Gainers: STX +3%, WDC +3%, DECK +3.6%, WYNN +3.5%, TSLA +2%, GOOGL +1.2%
Notable Losers: KDP 11%, CSX -5%, MSTR -4%, SBUX -3%, MRK -2.2%, KO -1.6%, PG -1.6%
After hours: The indices had a bad last 10 minutes of the regular session, but both SPY and QQQ are up a tick after hours.
MRKT Call: Discussing Friday’s gap higher following the release of the Jackson Hole speech and the relative calm since that gap. Also, what’s next for rate cuts, employment and inflation. Plus, previews of this week’s earnings in retail and Nvidia.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy react to the Jackson Hole speech and subsequent market move. They take stock of where we are in inflation, growth and employment cycles, what sectors could most benefit and which will be most hurt.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks close lower to start the week as Nvidia’s gains fail to prop up Nasdaq (CNBC)
Trump says government will make deals like Intel stake ‘all day long’ (CNBC)
US New-Home Sales Exceed Forecast Following Upward Revision (Bloomberg)
Tech Rally Shows Signs of Losing Steak (WSJ)
Musk Sues Apple, OpenAI, Saying They Hurt AI Competition (Bloomberg)
Struggling Snap Considers Outside Funding for AR Glasses (The Information)
Keurig Dr Pepper to Buy JDE Peet’s for $18 Billion in Revamp (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The SPX continues to find sellers near the 6500 level. As mentioned here over the past two weeks, there’s heavy overhead supply from the options market at that level. The Jackson Hole speech was enough to get us back near that level but It probably takes a second catalyst, like an NVDA earnings, to push through (in the near term). After today’s failure near 6500, SPX drifted back to the 5450 area, a level it pinned twice last week before the mid week volatility, but failed there in the last 10 minutes of the session.
If selling were to follow through for a few days in a row, key levels to watch are last week’s low near 6350, where buyers are likely to step in given the current low-volatility, long-gamma backdrop. Beyond that, say if NVDA earnings started a chain reaction in megacap tech that took the entire market lower, the bigger line in the sand is 6200 — the post-FOMC low.
Bottom line: 6500 is a wall to the upside, likely needed a good reaction to NVDA to crack it. To the downside, dip-buying bias holds for now, all the way until 6200.
Tuesday, August 25th
8:30am - Durable goods
9am - Housing Prices
10am - August Consumer Confidence
After-hours: OKTA 11%, MDB 14%, BOX 9%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: The (Monday) Morning After
Discussing Friday’s gap higher following the release of the Jackson Hole speech and the relative calm since that gap. Also, what’s next for rate cuts, employment and inflation. Plus, previews of this week’s earnings in retail and Nvidia.
Analysis - SPX, US10YY, TLT, WMT, SX7E, BKX, NVDA, KSS, DG, NKE, BABA, KWEB, COST
Your Questions
Scott A - can they actually look at Nike’s chart, it seems to get stuck around this level
Donald Clayton - Thanks for everything you do. I was wondering if either of you had a preferred way to invest in palladium?
Gary Webb - WMT... COST also
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Market Hears What It Wants...
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss the recent market response to Fed Chair Powell's annual address at the Jackson Hole conference. They delve into the implications for rate cuts and market movements, highlighting key points from Powell's speech. The conversation covers the mixed signals from the labor market and inflation risks, the performance of different sectors and asset classes, and the fallout of the Fed's policy shifts. They also touch upon notable stock performances like Nvidia, impacted by recent geopolitical tensions and policy decisions. The episode concludes with observations on the potential for market corrections and the importance of monitoring economic indicators and currencies.
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