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The Market's Getting Volatile
RiskReversal Recap: 10.14.25
RiskReversal Media
October 14, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened sharply lower, briefly retesting Friday’s lows before mounting a strong red-to-green reversal, though late-day selling trimmed gains. Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, mixed bank earnings, and comments from Fed Chair Powell drove the action in a market that’s suddenly far more volatile than in recent months. On the day: SPX -0.2%, QQQ -0.7% and IWM +1.4%
Elswhere, yields slid a bit in their first session since the weekend, the US10YY is now 4.03%. Gold was higher, it has been extremely volatile the past few days. Oil has also gotten volatile, lower today and now $58.50. BTC is just shy of $113k. The VIX nearly touched 23 this morning, before closing higher at 20.80.
Notable Gainers: WFC +6.9%, WMT +4.8%, CAT +4.7%, LUV +4.5%, HPQ +4.4%, DAL +4.2%, TEAM +4.7%
Notable Losers: NVDA -4.4%, CRM -3.5%, GS -2%, JPM +1.9%, AMZN -1.7%, INTC -4.2%
After hours: The last half hour of trading saw selling into the close and SPY and QQQ are both down a tick after hours.
MRKT Call: Dan and Guy discuss the latest tit for tat between China and the US. Thoughts on JPM earnings and Jamie Dimon’s comments. Carter joins to talk historical drawdowns of 5%, how often, and what typically happens after. A look at treasury yields and where TLT could go. A trade in XLP and your questions.
RiskReversal Pod: Liz and Guy on the market sell-off (and rebound), the sudden fragility in risk assets like meme stocks and crypto. They also discuss bank earnings, shifting yield curves, M&A activity, and the broader implications of volatility, and algorithmic trading.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 closes in red during volatile session as Trump knocks China once again (CNBC)
Trump threatens China with cooking oil embargo over soybean snub (CNBC)
Scott Bessent slams China: ‘They want to pull everybody else down with them’ (FT)
Bank Earnings Update (FactSet)
Dimon’s ‘Cockroach’ Fear Revives Threat of Growing Credit Cracks (Bloomberg)
Fed’s Powell suggests tightening program could end soon, offers no guidance on rates (CNBC)
IMF Sounds Alarm on Investor Complacency (WSJ)
The AI boom is lifting the stock market, but it may be masking a weaker economy (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As we noted in Sunday’s weekly preview, Friday’s volatility spike left markets primed for larger intraday swings in both directions — with short gamma amplifying downside and upside alike. From Sunday:
the market was clearly caught off guard, and such a sharp, sudden shift in implied volatility often leaves lingering effects on price action — including the potential for a squeeze higher if sellers were too quick to bail.
Today’s action was a textbook example of that dynamic, as the market held Friday’s lows, then traders scrambled to reestablish positions into a thin liquidity vacuum, only to be hit with another bout of selling into the close. One standout from today’s action was the small-cap space, where the whipsaw was strong enough to send the IWM to new highs intraday. With implied volatility likely to remain somewhat elevated, even during rallies, that setup could fuel more outsized moves, especially in mid- and small-cap names as momentum traders panic then play FOMO.
Looking ahead, earnings season is going to be a big deal, especially with this level of market vol. The banks reactions were mixed, but nothing crazy, but the true test will come when semiconductor and AI-related names start to report — a key vibe check for just how durable the rally really is.
Tomorrow, more bank earnings, ASML in the semi equipment space, the Fed Beige Book and about a 0.75% expected move in the SPX, up from yesterday as day to day volatility continues to pick up.
Wednesday
Pre-market: ASML 7.5%, BAC 4.8%, MS 4.8%, DLTR 6%
Fed Speak: Miran, Waller,
2pm - Beige Book
After-hours: UAL 8%, JBH 6.3%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: S&P 500 Key Levels, Is The Bottom In?
Dan and Guy discuss the latest tit for tat between China and the US. Thoughts on JPM earnings and Jamie Dimon’s comments. Carter joins to talk historical drawdowns of 5%, how often, and what typically happens after. A look at treasury yields and where TLT could go. A trade in XLP and your questions.
Analysis - SPX, VIX, JPM, TLT, XLP, WMT, SMH, NVDA, MSFT, BAC, BTC, IWM
Live Robinhood Trade - XLP Call Spread
Your Questions
Marvelous Marvin - Have the goldminers topped?
Eric C - Why is IWM green in a straight line?
Learn more about our sponsor, Robinhood.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Why Old Rules Aren’t Working: Are We Headed for Something Different This Time?
In this episode of the RiskReversal podcast, Guy Adami and Liz Thomas of SoFi discuss the sell-off and subsequent bounce-back. They analyze the current fragility of the market, particularly in high-risk assets like meme stocks and cryptocurrency. The conversation also explores the role of algorithmic trading in market volatility, the dynamics of the bank earnings season, and expectations for the financial sector amid recent capital market activities. They delve into the impacts on regional banks versus larger financial institutions, discussing the influence of a steepening yield curve and M&A activity. The podcast also touches on the complexities of current asset class relationships, unexpected market behaviors, and the significance of gold as a safe-haven asset. A brief discussion on the implications of the government shutdown for economic data releases and federal monetary policy rounds out the episode.
Learn more about our sponsor Robinhood.
