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The Momentum Correction Continues
RiskReversal Recap: November 17, 2025
RiskReversal Media
November 17, 2025
MARKET WRAP
After a morning rally attempt fizzled stocks spent the rest of the session under fairly steady pressure. Almost every sector was lower today with GOOGL’s rally on a Berkshire investment keeping things from being worse for the SPX and QQQ. At its lows the SPX was -1.5% but saw some buying into the close, possibly from some dovish Fed member speak. On the day SPX, -0.9%, QQQ -0.8%, and IWM -2%.
Elsewhere, the Dec rate cuts odds remain at around 45%, but the US10YY has settled in for now, lower today to 4.13%. Gold slightly lower, as was oil. The VIX got as high as 23.50 before finishing the day at 22.40. That’s the highest the VIX has been since the mid October China/US rare earths feud.
Notable Gainers: GOOGL +3.1%, AMGN +1.6%, JNJ +1.6%, ED +2%
Notable Losers: DELL -8.8%, COIN -7.8%, EXPE -7.7%, HPE -7%, SMCI -6.6%, HOOD -6.5%, UAL -6%, SHOP -4%, NVDA -2%
After Hours: SPY and QQQ saw some buying into the close and they’re both a tick higher after hours.
Today’s MRKT Call: Guy and Dan dig into the consumer and COST, bring in Carter to break down Bitcoin’s test of a decade-long trendline (and what it means for names like MSTR and BMNR), and wrap with Berkshire’s new GOOGL stake, the stock’s pop, and a potential way to trade a fade in that move.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy is joined by Peter Boockvar to break down the shifting AI landscape, Oracle’s financial stress, Meta’s spending burn, the weird cross-currents in the economy and job market, Bitcoin’s changing correlations, and why energy and big-cap pharma might quietly be setting up as the next winners.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow drops 550 points, dragged down by Nvidia, tech shares (CNBC)
Fed Governor Waller backs December rate cut as support for weakening labor market (CNBC)
AI could be causing ‘quiet time’ in labor market, top Trump economic aide Hassett says (CNBC)
‘I’m nervous’: Klarna founder challenges trillion-dollar spending on AI (FT)
Google to Invest $40 Billion in New Data Centers in Texas (Bloomberg)
Now Tech Moguls Want to Build Data Centers in Outer Space (WSJ)
Jeff Bezos Creates A.I. Start-Up Where He Will Be Co-Chief Executive (NYT)
Apple intensifies succession planning for CEO Tim Cook (FT)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The SPX’s -1.5% drop at one point today not only marks a new low for November but also puts the index dangerously close to a -5% pullback from the recent all-time highs — the largest drawdown since the monster rally kicked off in April. More notably, this is the first time in 158 sessions that the SPX has closed below its 50-day moving average, an unusually long stretch without any real weakness. Momentum had already been flashing warnings elsewhere: Bitcoin is now down more than -25% from its early-October peak, and small caps (IWM) are off roughly -8% from their late-October highs.
With hindsight, the surprisingly hawkish — or at least not-dovish — tone from Powell and the FOMC in late October looks like the moment where a lot of the momentum started to crack. The weeks that followed delivered some messy megacap earnings reactions and plenty of rotation that temporarily masked how much volatility was building under the surface. Now that underlying weakness is showing up across the board, and there aren’t many places for investors to hide.
All that said, the tape is still solidly green on the year: QQQs are up about +17% even after a nearly -6% pullback from the highs at one point today. Looking ahead, the next major catalyst is Nvidia’s earnings — and it increasingly feels like investor reaction to that print will determine whether the market can salvage a year-end rally. There’s also the Fed watch, the Dec rate cut odds slipping below 50% is really doing a number on investor sentiment, if something were to cause that to jump back towards 60% one would think equities would catch a bid. There aren’t many places to look for the market to regain its momentum, but those two are the most obvious.
For tomorrow, volatility expectations remain pumped, with about a 0.9% expected move for SPX. It looks like we won’t be getting govt numbers tomorrow like industrial production, so Thursday may be the first day data starts coming in. We’ll update here, but it’s likely to be messy for a few weeks on that front. Earnings before the open from BIDU and HD:
Tuesday, Nov 18th
Fed Speak: Barr, Barkin
Pre-market: HD 4%, BIDU 6.5%
SPX Expected Move: 0.9%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Chart Check on Bitcoin: Time to Buy for a Bounce?
Guy and Dan begin with a look at the consumer and COST. Carter joins to talk about how BTC is now at a long term trendline (going back to 2014). A look at the related stocks like MSTR and BMNR. Then, Berkshire’s purchase of GOOGL, the move higher, and a potential way to position for that rally to fizzle.
Analysis - SPX, COST, BTC, MSTR, BMNR, NVDA, GOOGL Trade - GOOGL Put Fly
Your Questions:
Lee Jay - Do u two rapscallions have thoughts on MSTR? This thing seems to be structured to eat itself.
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Growth at Any Cost: What Happens If AI Bets Don't Pay Off?
Guy is joined by Peter Boockvar to discuss recent market trends, including the shifts in AI dominance and financial stresses at Oracle. They analyze the stock market's reaction to Meta's spending and the implications for data center build-outs. The conversation covers the competitive landscape with AI and the potential overrates in hardware infrastructure. They also discuss the unusual dynamics in the US economy and the job market's deceleration, touching on Bitcoin's correlation with other assets. Finally, they explore the bullish outlook on energy stocks and the rebound in big-cap pharma amid regulatory clarity.
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