MARKET WRAP

We began the day with stocks red, perhaps showing signs of exhaustion on the rally, but buyers quickly emerged once again, powering the SPX higher for the fourth consecutive day. On the day, SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.1% and IWM +0.5%. After a slew of mixed economic data and words from Fed Chair Powell, treasury yields backed off a bit with the 10Y yield now 4.45%. Oil remains volatile and was down about -2%, Gold was higher. DXY was lower, now $100.80. The VIX closed below 18, showing no signs of fear on the immediate horizon.

After hours: Applied Materials is down about -4% and Take Two is lower by about -2% on earnings, conference calls to come.

• MRKT Call: Carter joins Guy to discuss the speed of the recent rally, where it stacks historically and what we can learn from prior examples. Also, mega caps, yields, Walmart and more.

• RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by Sina Chehrazi, CEO and founder of Nayya to talk the complexities of healthcare, drug prices,AI integrations and more.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• S&P 500 rises for a fourth day, Dow adds 260 points ⁠(CNBC)⁠

• Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges (⁠CNBC⁠)

• Dimon Says Recession Remains a Possibility on Tariff Fallout (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• Steve Cohen says stocks could retest their April lows, sees a 45% chance of recession (⁠CNBC⁠)

• Trump Asks Apple to Stop Moving iPhone Production to India (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• Trump Says US and Iran Are Closer to Reaching a Nuclear Deal (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• EU Readies New Trade Proposal for US as Tariff Talks Move Slowly (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• Walmart Becomes Biggest Retailer Yet to Pass Through Tariff Price Increases (⁠WSJ⁠)

• Meta Is Delaying the Rollout of Its Flagship AI Model ⁠(WSJ)⁠

• Dick’s Sporting Goods to Buy Foot Locker for $2.4 Billion (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• UnitedHealth Group Is Under Criminal Investigation for Possible Medicare Fraud (⁠WSJ⁠)

WHAT’S NEXT?

Economic data presented a mixed picture: retail sales missed expectations, while inflation at the wholesale level and jobless claims showed some resilience. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped over 2% on hopes of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, potentially easing sanctions on Iranian oil .

Bond yields slid, with investor expectations of potential Fed rate cuts slightly higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned about prolonged supply shocks that could fuel inflation, posing challenges for policymakers .

We saw two way action today with the morning sell-off finding buyers to close higher on the day but once again, volatility was missing with SPY trading within a $5 range. We are just 4% off the all time highs.

For tomorrow, a consumer sentiment number, but no big market moving earnings.

• Friday, May 16th:

  • 8:30am: - Housing starts

  • 10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment

Expected Move SPX: 0.7% (one of the lowest we’ve seen in some time)

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Chart Check on the Markets: S&P 500, Gold & Yields

• Analysis: SPX, MSFT, NFLX, US10YY, TLT, Gold, WMT, UNH, DE, BTC

• Weekly SoFi Report: Decoding April Inflation

• John Butters Earnings Analysis: How often tariffs have been cited on calls. 

• Your Questions Answered: 

  • Does Carter like MACD, ADX and RSI as indicators?

  • What if the 10Y hits 4.75, 5.00?

  • Carter’s thoughts on UNH?

  • Thoughts on Bitcoin?

  • What sectors is Carter bullish on?

Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.

Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Denied Claims, AI Agents, and the Battle to Fix American Healthcare

Dan Nathan speaks with Sina Chehrazi, the CEO and founder of Nayya, a company innovating in the employee benefits sector. They discuss diverse topics such as Chehrazi's personal and professional background, the painful complexity of healthcare, and the evolving mission of Nayya. Chehrazi details the company's use of AI and data integration to improve the selection, utilization, and optimization of benefits for employees, emphasizing the importance of user experience. The conversation also covers the broader implications of Nayya's impact on the healthcare market, partnerships with major tech firms, and the potential future of consumer-directed healthcare services. Additionally, they address current events, including an executive order by the Trump administration aimed at reducing drug prices, and the ramifications on the industry. Chehrazi expresses a strong sentiment for the need to curb excessive healthcare costs to promote a healthier and more sustainable market environment.

Learn more about our sponsor Betterment and RBC Capital Markets.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR PARTNER

Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past podcast episodes? Go to wherever you get your podcasts and type in “RiskReversal Media”

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions