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The Week Ahead: A Holiday Shortened Week with Stocks at Highs, Central Banker Talk, and June Jobs Number
Trading Calendar: Week of June 30th, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 29, 2025
This Week
After a week that saw the S&P 500 climb over 3% and notch a record close on Friday, we head into a holiday-shortened week — but it won’t be without potential catalysts. The coming days could help determine whether the rally breaks higher, takes a breather, or runs into signs of buyer fatigue. More on the week ahead below, but first, a quick catch-up on the weekend’s headlines — much of which focused on ongoing negotiations in Washington over the new spending bill.
Trump's sweeping tax-cut, spending bill clears first US Senate hurdle (Reuters)
The Republican-controlled U.S. Senate narrowly advanced President Donald Trump's, sweeping tax-cut and spending bill on Saturday, during a marathon weekend session marked by political drama, division and lengthy delays as Democrats sought to slow the legislation's path to passage. Lawmakers voted 51-49 to open debate on the 940-page megabill, with two of Trump's fellow Republicans joining Democrats to oppose the legislation that would fund the president's top immigration, border, tax-cut and military priorities.
Trump does not expect to extend July 9 tariffs deadline: 'I don't think I'll need to' (Yahoo Finance)
President Donald Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday that he did not plan to extend the July 9 tariff deadline he set for countries to broker deals with the US. "I don’t think I’ll need to," he told Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo. He added, however, "I could, no big deal.” During a White House press conference on Friday, Trump said the July 9 deadline to raise "reciprocal" tariffs was not set.
The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled (WSJ)
One measure of market breadth recently touched a new high, as financial and industrial names fuel stocks’ climb. The summer stock rally is broadening beyond big tech. Megacap technology stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Broadcom led the market’s rapid, tariff-spurred selloff earlier this year, only to rebound just as quickly a few weeks later when trade fears eased. Now, with economic fears diminished and optimism growing that the Trump administration will take a milder stance on trade, the recovery has expanded to include stocks across a more diverse group of sectors, such as financials, industrials and utilities.
Tesla Deliveries Due As Musk Rips Trump Budget Bill (IBD)
Second-quarter Tesla deliveries are due on Wednesday, July 2. A tesla-compiled analyst consensus pegs deliveries at 385,066, but many recent forecasts have been around 350,000-370,000.
Tesla delivered 336,681 EVs in the seasonally slow Q1 and 443,956 in Q2 2024. Tesla bulls have focused on the June 22 robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas. The 10 or so Model Y robotaxis have had some issues, even with a "safety monitor" in the front passenger seat and teleoperators. The key is whether Tesla can expand the robotaxi service, including to other cities, while scaling back the human backup. Musk took to his social site X on Saturday to rip the Senate version of the Trump budget bill, which could pass this week. "The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country! Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future." That alludes to the elimination of the $7,500 tax credit for EVs, which will have a significant impact on Tesla sales. The Senate version would end the EV credit on Sept. 30 vs. the House-passed legislation on Dec. 31. Curbs on other green energy credits also could have direct or indirect impacts.
The Unlikely Stocks That Drove the Market to a Record High (WSJ)
Dollar General, not the Magnificent Seven, is the rally’s hero. It makes for a healthier market when unloved stocks get a bit of attention too. It is easy to tell a simple story about the stock market at the moment. But it would be wrong. The simple story is Big Tech is back, baby! The Magnificent Seven went into a tailspin as tariffs, war and the spectacle of the president’s coming close to firing the head of the Federal Reserve sent the world’s biggest stocks plunging. But they have pulled out of their dive, and despite Friday’s renewed trade tensions with Canada, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq made new highs on Friday. Boom!
Where Are Analysts Most Optimistic on Ratings for S&P 500 Companies Heading into Q3? (FactSet)
With the start of the third quarter approaching, where are analysts most optimistic and pessimistic in terms of their ratings on stocks in the S&P 500? Overall, there are 12,319 ratings on stocks in the S&P 500. Of these ratings, 56.4% are Buy ratings, 38.7% are Hold ratings, and 4.9% are Sell ratings. The percentage of Buy ratings is above its 5-year (month-end) average of 55.1%. The percentage Hold ratings is below its 5-year (month-end) average of 39.0%. The percentage of Sell ratings is also below its 5-year (month-end) average of 5.9%. At the sector level, analysts are most optimistic on the Energy (68%), Communication Services (64%), and Information Technology (64%) sectors, as these three sectors have the highest percentages of Buy ratings. On the other hand, analysts are most pessimistic on the Consumer Staples (40%) sector, as this sector has the lowest percentage of Buy ratings. The Consumer Staples (53%) sector also has the highest percentage of Hold ratings, while the Consumer Staples (7%) and Utilities (7%) sectors have the highest percentages of Sell ratings.
Because last week’s rally to new highs was on the heels of a series of news headlines that effectively de-risked the investment backdrop, we saw a fairly significant compressions in expected volatility. That is not only apparent in the equity indexes below, but also USO (oil), with a 3% expected move, down from nearly 7% last week. For this week:
This Week’s Expected Moves:
SPX/SPY: 1.1% (6100-6250)
QQQ: 1.4%
IWM: 2%
TLT: 1.4%
USO: 3%
This week’s economic calendar sees an important Jobs number on Thursday morning, and other labor market data all moved up a day due to the three day weekend. But before that we get plenty of Central Bank speak, much of which comes during an ECB summit in Portugal:
Economic Calendar:
Monday
9:45am - Chicago PMI
10am - Fed Bostic Speech
1:30pm - ECB Lagarde Speech
Tuesday
9:30am - Powell, Bailey and Ueda Speeches
10am - ISM Manufacturing
10am - JOLTS job openings
Wednesday
8:15am - ADP Employment
10:15am - ECB Lagarde Speech
10
Thursday
8:30am - Non Farm Payrolls
10am - ISM Services PMI
Friday
Independence Day
An extremely light earnings calendar this week. Earnings flips back on in mid July, with the large banks kicking things off once again. Some days to note ahead of time, JPM July 15th, NFLX July 17th, etc.
Earnings (with expected moves):
Monday
After-hours: PRGS 7%
Tuesday
After-hours: STZ 5%
With major indexes now at new highs, a key focus this week will be how stocks that remain below their 52-week highs — in some cases, well below — behave, especially in what could be a lower-volume trading environment. Will investors rotate into these laggards in search of catch-up trades? Or, after such a swift rebound from the April lows, is this a moment to take profits in the names that have already broken out — and if so, where does that capital flow? Alternatively, do investors simply stick with the leaders?
Also worth monitoring is implied volatility. With the VIX back at 16, further compression could support a continued, steady grind higher for equities. However, if we start to see “stocks up, vol up” behavior, it might signal the early stages of market froth — a setup that often precedes one last fast push higher before two-way volatility returns. For now, conditions remain favorable for a slow melt-up, especially with dip-buying behavior still intact, as evidenced by Friday’s brief but quickly reversed pullback.
