The Week Ahead

We head into the week following last week’s brief pause in tariff-related market chaos and a slightly calmer—though still elevated—volatility environment. While traders will need to be alert to tariff headline risk, attention is also beginning to shift toward upcoming earnings reports and fresh economic data, which may initially present a mixed picture. Futures opened Sunday evening pointing to a modestly weaker start to the week, with S&P futures down -0.5%.

But before we dive into the outlook for the week ahead, here’s a quick recap of some notable stories from the weekend:

• First Shockwaves of Trump’s Tariffs Are About to Hit the World Economy (Bloomberg)

  • Three weeks after US President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the whole world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout.

• Tech’s Problems in China Are Getting Worse. These Companies Are Most at Risk (Barron’s)

  • News this past week that both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices are taking charges in the current quarter because of the latest U.S. rule limiting chip sales to China cast attention on a broader problem: Tech companies, in chip manufacturing and beyond, are at risk as Beijing and Washington square off.

• Trade Deals Could Take Years. Here’s What Can Happen Fast (Barron’s)

  • President Donald Trump’s lightning-fast timeline for striking trade deals is likely to produce some interim successes soon, but analysts and former negotiators don’t see a quick resolution with the most important U.S. trading partners.

• The Trump Tariffs Are Tilting the Scales in the Coke vs. Pepsi Battle (WSJ)

  • Pepsi was already losing the cola wars. The trade war isn’t going much better. It all comes down to where PepsiCo and Coca-Cola make the secret-recipe concentrates that are the essence of their sodas. Concentrates are made in special facilities, then shipped to bottling plants. There, they are combined with water, bubbles and sweetener to make soda. Coke makes the concentrate for its U.S. sodas mostly in Atlanta and Puerto Rico, while Pepsi’s is imported from Ireland.

• The Justice Department is about to make its case for a Google breakup. Here's what to know (NPR)

  • An initial Justice Department proposal for remedies included forcing Google to pull out of its investments in AI, which includes the more than $3 billion it's poured into Anthropic, the AI research company that developed the Claude large language model.

  • In March, however, the DOJ changed tack. In a court filing, the government said it was still concerned about Google's potential ability to influence AI companies, but it dropped the divestiture requirement, saying barring the company completely from investments in AI could "cause unintended consequences in the evolving AI space."

  • And Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was in court last week defending his social media platform in a case in which the Federal Trade Commission argues the tech behemoth has abused its power and acted as a monopoly by acquiring rivals in order to defang them as competitors.

• Trump tariffs could lead to a summer drop-off in economic activity after an ‘artificially high’ start, Chicago Fed chief says (CNBC)

  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Sunday that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are causing U.S. business owners to stock up on inventories. “Preemptive purchasing” by businesses, as well as consumers, of big-ticket items at pre-tariff prices may cause an “artificially high” level of economic activity, the central banker said. The temporary bump could be followed by a corresponding drop-off in the summer, Goolsbee said.

• Boeing jet returns to US from China, a victim of Trump’s tariff war (CNN)

  • A Boeing jet intended for use by a Chinese airline landed back at the planemaker’s U.S. production hub on Saturday, a victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by President Donald Trump in his global trade offensive.

  • The 737 MAX, which was meant for China’s Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle’s Boeing Field at 6:11 p.m., according to a Reuters witness. It was painted with Xiamen livery.

  • It is not clear which party made the decision for the aircraft to return to the U.S.
    

We’re starting the new week with a notable drop in implied volatility and expectations for market movement. Part of this can be chalked up to traders pricing in the three-day weekend. That said, we could see an uptick in volatility as early as Monday, depending on if the market slides to start the week. The SPX's expected move this week is just 3%, down from 4% last week and 6% the week before that:

This Week’s Expected Moves:

• SPX/SPY: 3% (5100-5450)

  • QQQ: 3.5%

  • IWM: 3.3%

  • TLT: 1.6%

  • USO: 4%

One key takeaway is the sharp drop in TLT volatility and expected move compared to the past two weeks. Traders appear less concerned about the sharp swings in treasuries that helped trigger a tariff pivot two weeks ago.

On the equity front, we’ve been noting the potential for single stock volatility to diverge from broader market volatility—especially heading into earnings season. With overall implied vols pulling back, early this week could present opportunities to reassess positioning in individual names at meaningfully lower volatility levels.

Looking ahead, this week’s economic calendar features an IMF meeting, a slew of Fed speeches, and the release of the Beige Book. Traders will also be watching for signs of shifts in corporate and consumer behavior as we move a few weeks into the real world uncertainty surrounding tariff implementation.

Economic Calendar: 

• Tuesday: 

  • All Week - IMF Meeting

  • 2pm - Fed Kashkari Speech

• Wednesday:

  • 9am - Fed Goolsbee Speech

  • 9:45am - S&P Global PMIs

  • 10am - New Home Sales

  • 2pm - Fed Beige Book

• Thursday:

  • 8:30am - Durable Goods

  • 8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims

  • 10am - Existing Home Sales

• Friday:

  • 10am - Consumer Sentiment

Tesla and Alphabet headline a busy earnings week that also sees reports from Intel, Boeing, IBM and more.

Earnings (with expected moves):

• Tuesday

  • Premarket: VZ 4.2%, LMT 4.8%, RTX 4.5%

  • After hours: TSLA 9.6%, ISRG 7.3%, COF 6.1%

• Wednesday

  • Premarket: BA 6%, T 5.1%

  • After hours: IBM 7.3%, NOW 8.4%, CMG 7.6%, TXN 7%

• Thursday

  • Premarket: AAL 8%, FCX 6.2%, LUV 7.2%, MRK 5.4%, PEP 3.2%

  • After Hours: GOOGL 6.3%, INTC 9.4%, TMUS 4.2%

• Friday

  • Premarket: SLB 5.1%, ABBV 4.8%

Again, the thing that matters the most for the overall market is still tariff headlines. But, we’re now in a period of time where sectors and individual tickers may diverge from the broader market.

We’ve got some great shows all week, tune in and remember to submit your questions in to be answered on air.

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