The Week Ahead

Was Friday’s Sell-Off the Start of Something Bigger—or Just Profit-Taking?Friday’s sharp drop caught many traders and investors off guard, raising the question: will this weakness carry into a week where NVDA earnings were expected to be the key catalyst, or was it just another short-term bout of profit-taking sparked by headline risks? We’ll find out soon enough.

Futures opened in the green on Sunday night, with S&P futures up about 20 points following Friday’s sell-off. Markets can be tricky here—bulls might prefer a sharp dip at the open that gets bought, while bears may be hoping for a failed rally attempt in the morning, that clears the way for the market lower to go even lower. We’ll see how it plays out.

For now, let’s look at the expected moves for the week, as priced by the options market. Remember, Friday was a monthly options expiration day, and the days following can sometimes see equities move more freely without the gravitational pull of expiring positions.

As of Friday’s close, the SPX is pricing in an implied move of about 1.5% for the week—up from 1% last week, signaling a rise in volatility expectations, though still within a normal historical range. In other words, implied vol picked up, but unless the SPX breaks below 6000 it is in no way in panic mode yet. However, a failed rally in the morning would likely send the VIX above 20 and open up equities for even more sharp moves.

Expected Moves for the Week:

• SPY/SPX: 1.5%

• QQQ: 2.1%

• IWM: 2.2%

• USO: 3.1%

• TLT: 1.4%

• GLD: 1.4%

While equity volatility has jumped a bit, the TLT expected move for this week remains similar to last week, reinforcing that Friday’s sell-off wasn’t driven by inflation or rate concerns, but rather by growth fears—a notable shift from the market trends we’ve seen over the past months.

On the earnings front, the calendar continues to slow, but Nvidia’s upcoming report stands out as the key catalyst this week. Here are the expected moves for NVDA and other notable names set to report:

• Monday

  • After hours: HIMS 22.5%, RIOT 11.1%, ZM 9.4%

• Tuesday

  • Pre-market: HD 4.4%

  • After hours: AMC 11.3%

• Wednesday

  • Pre-market: LOW 5%

  • After hours: NVDA 8.5%, SNOW 11.3%

• Thursday

  • Pre-market: DELL 9.6%

• Friday

  • Pre-market: FUBO 16.6%

Key Economic Data to Watch This Week

With last week’s sharp market reaction to weaker-than-expected Main Street data, this week’s housing data and consumer confidence reports early on now carry added significance. The spotlight then shifts to Thursday and Friday mornings, when several major releases are on deck, including GDP, PCE, and other key indicators that are likely to drive market moves. Traders will be watching closely for any signs of economic weakness—or resilience.

• Tuesday

  • 10am: Consumer Confidence

• Wednesday

  • 10am: New Home Sales

• Thursday

  • 8:30am: GDP

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims

  • 10am: Pending Home Sales

• Friday

  • PCE

We’ll be previewing Nvidia earnings later in the week, as well as revisiting some possible hedges should Friday’s sell-off turn into a preview of even more volatility. As always, we’ve got some great content coming this week, so stay tuned.

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