The Week Ahead

Last Monday marked the second consecutive week of market reactions to bearish weekend news. This time, the weekend was quieter, though Friday’s drop on “reciprocal” tariff headlines still lingers. Whether that story develops further remains to be seen. Otherwise, this week is shaping up to be more typically eventful, with earnings, key inflation data, and central bank commentary on deck. Below are the projected moves for major indices and ETFs:

Expected Moves for the Week:

• SPY/SPX: 1.4%

• QQQ: 1.9%

• IWM: 2.2%

• USO: 2.6%

• TLT: 1.4%

• GLD: 1.6%

The VIX closed last week at 16.50, and option pricing will be key to watch as we move past earnings season and into the CPI/PPI reports. Currently, SPX options suggest implied volatility will compress following Powell’s midweek testimony and the inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. This comes ahead of a three-day weekend, during which market makers typically prefer lower option prices. That decline in volatility is being priced into next week and the February monthly options expiration, with a pickup not expected until NVDA earnings in late February.

In short, traders have been positioning for reduced market volatility in the two weeks following CPI. Whether that holds depends on avoiding unexpected headlines, particularly tariff-related surprises. If volatility does ease, the market could grind higher as recent option buyers turn into sellers, potentially pushing equities toward all-time highs ahead of the NVDA report. However, that’s a big “if.”

Any negative surprises—such as tariff headlines, Powell’s remarks, or inflation data impacting yields—could push SPX below 6000, where options market support is weak. Keep an eye on the VIX into next weekend. If SPX remains under 6000 with heightened volatility (VIX 17+), expect more choppiness or outright downward pressure. But if we steer clear of market shocks and SPX holds above 6100, it’s likely grind mode higher with a VIX dropping below 15.

Here’s a look at notable earnings this week, with expected moves:

• Monday

  • Pre-market: MCD 3.4%

• Tuesday

  • Pre-market: KO 2.7%, SHOP 12.6%, BP 4.7%

  • After hours: SMCI 18.5%, LYFT 16%, DASH 9.3%

• Wednesday

  • Pre-market: CVS 7.1%, GOLD 4.8%
    After hours: RDDT 15.3%, HOOD 11.5%

• Thursday

  • Pre-market: DDOG 9.6%, DE 5.2%

  • After hours: COIN 9.4%, PANW 7.6%, AMAT 6.8%, ROKU 13.4%, WYNN 6.1%, TWLO 8.9%, DKNG 9.0%

• Friday

  • Pre-market: MRNA 10.3%

On the economic data and events calendar the week begins with central bankers, we get some updates on inflation mid week, and go into the three day weekend with a look at retail sales.

• Monday

  • 9am ECB Lagarde Speech

• Tuesday

  • 10am Powell Testimony

• Wednesday

  • 8:30am CPI

  • 10am Powell Testimony Ctd.

• Thursday

  • 8:30am PPI

• Friday

  • 8:30am Retail Sales

Enjoy the Super Bowl! We’ve got some great content all week.

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