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The Week Ahead: Iran, Oil, Powell in DC, GDP, PCE, with Tariff Pause Ticking.
Trading Calendar: Week of June 23rd, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 22, 2025
This Week
The big news over the weekend is the US strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Market attention now turns to whether this was an one off action or turns into a broader escalation. Equities may have already started to price in the possibility of US action on Friday, when the indices turned lower mid day, though oil prices remained relatively steady around the (already elevated) $75 level. Equity markets will likely take their cues from oil tomorrow, with the news flow on shipping routes the most immediate concern. Should things remain calm in the oil space, the reaction in equities could be muted.
However, this weekend’s news arrived just after Friday’s large options expiration, one which was having a dampening effect on potential equity moves over the past two weeks. The market is now somewhat better set-up for a more decisive move this week should a trend or a sentiment shift emerge, and it may not have to be directly related to the news out of the Middle East. More on that shortly—but first, here’s a quick rundown of some key weekend developments:
U.S. Officials Assess Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites (WSJ)
After the surprise U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, administration officials worked to assess the extent of the damage. Vice President JD Vance signaled that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium is still intact but also that the U.S. isn’t interested in destroying the regime. An area of particular interest is the Fordow uranium-enrichment complex. Experts say it could take weeks to know how much damage was inflicted. To recap, the U.S. this weekend had hit three sites—Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—in strikes involving 125 aircraft and a decoy. Washington said it has sent messages to Tehran urging Iran to engage in peace talks, but Iran's foreign minister cast doubt on the short-term prospects of a diplomatic solution. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Oman joined the head of the United Nations in condemning the U.S. strikes.
U.S. calls on China to prevent Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil flows (Bloomberg)
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called for China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important trade routes for crude oil in the world. Iran’s foreign minister warned earlier Sunday that the Islamic Republic “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty,” after the U.S. bombed three key nuclear sites over the weekend. Iranian state-owned media, meanwhile, reported that Iran’s parliament backed closing the Strait of Hormuz, citing a senior lawmaker. However, the final decision to close the strait lies with Iran’s national security council, according to the report. An attempt to block the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman could have profound consequences for the global economy. Some 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or 20% of global consumption, flowed through the strait in 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration. Oil prices could shoot above $100 per barrel if the strait is closed for a prolonged period, according to Goldman Sachs and consulting firm Rapidan Energy.
Gulf markets end higher, shielded from major turmoil after the U.S. strike on Iran (CNBC)
Markets across the Middle East ended mostly higher on Sunday after the United States entered the war between Israel and Iran and struck three key Iranian nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Stocks in Tel Aviv reached an all-time high on Sunday on bets that Washington’s entrance into the conflict with Tehran would help it to come to an end, despite the Iranian Foreign Minister’s insistence that the country could not return to diplomacy “while under attack.” The broader TA-125 index was trading 1.77% higher on Sunday, while the TA-35, Tel Aviv’s blue-chip index, was up 1.5%. Equities climbed in Israel last week after the country hit targets in Iran. In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul opened Sunday trading nearly half a percent higher before erasing earlier gains and closing down 0.3%. Qatar gained 0.2% and Bahrain’s index added 0.3%. Bahrain, home to the U.S. Central Command, issued a “work from home mandate” on Sunday, urging citizens to “only use main roads when necessary to maintain public safety.” Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 was the major gainer in the region, closing 2.7% higher on Sunday.
Options traders wrestle with stocks’ muted reaction to war risk (WSJ)
The stock market’s recent calm in the face of rising geopolitical threats had left options traders with a conundrum: sell volatility and risk being blindsided should the Middle East conflict escalate; or buy it and bleed away premiums as actual moves stay subdued. That tension is set to ratchet even higher after the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites. While the oil market is still likely to have the biggest reaction to the escalating conflict, equities may see an initial jump in volatility as traders try to digest the risks. Oil has surged 11% since Israel launched airstrikes on Iran a little more than a week ago, with crude volatility soaring to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By contrast, the S&P 500 Index is down just 1.3%.
Apple Executives Have Held Internal Talks About Buying AI Startup Perplexity (Bloomberg)
Apple executives have held internal talks about potentially bidding for artificial intelligence startup Perplexity, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The discussions are at an early stage and may not lead to an offer, the report said, adding that the tech behemoth's executives have not discussed a bid with Perplexity's management.
Meta approached Perplexity before massive Scale AI deal (CNBC)
Meta approached artificial intelligence startup Perplexity AI about a potential takeover bid before ultimately investing $14.3 billion into Scale AI, CNBC confirmed on Friday. The two companies did not finalize a deal, according to two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because of the confidential nature of the negotiations. One person familiar with the talks said it was “mutually dissolved,” while another person familiar with the matter said Perplexity walked away from a potential deal.
Everything we know about Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin (CNBC)
Tesla ’s long-overdue robotaxi is finally hitting the streets this weekend, but the rollout may face some roadblocks. The Elon Musk-led electric vehicle company is expected to roll out robotaxis in Austin, Texas, on June 22, with the first driverless trip from the factory to a customer house expected on his birthday, June 28. Musk shared news of the tentative debut in a post on social media platform X last week.
A Battery That Lasts 50% Longer Is Finally in Production (WSJ)
Solid-state batteries have long been elusive, but a firm that supplied cells to the Defense Department could be first to get them into consumer electronics. Ion Storage Systems’ novel solid-state batteries were inspired by hydrogen fuel-cell technology. The company’s high-energy-density batteries are now in production in a factory in Beltsville, Md. And though the U.S. is pulling back on investments in many energy technologies, a key backer is the Energy Department.
The VIX closed lower on Friday, now near 20. Its next move will depend on the reaction in equities and oil tomorrow. Beyond the geopolitical backdrop, much will also depend on how the SPX now handles the 6000 level, which has served as a recent consolidation zone. If the U.S. strikes on Iran turn into a “sell the news” event and equities are bought now that the headline risk has passed, the reduced overhead from options positioning this week could allow for further upside. On the other hand, if the recent sideways action was masking some buyer exhaustion, the path lower is now a bit easier. It's worth noting there's still a sizable options position at the 5900 level that doesn’t expire until the end of June, which could act as support near term. But, we may finally see a resolution to this consolidation in the coming week or two. For this week:
This Week’s Expected Moves:
SPX/SPY: 1.8% (5850-6100)
QQQ: 2.2%
IWM: 2.5%
TLT: 1.4%
USO: 6.5%
This week’s economic calendar sees Fed Chair Powell back on Capitol Hill, housing data, a slew of Central Banker (US, Europe, UK) appearances, GDP on Thursday, and PCE on Friday:
Economic Calendar:
Monday
All Day - Fed Governor speeches
9:45am - S&P Global PMIs
10am - Existing Home Sales
Tuesday
All Day - Global Central Banker speeches
10am - Fed Chair Powell on Capitol Hill
Wednesday
10am - New Home Sales
10am - Powell on Capitol Hill, Day 2
Thursday
All Day - Global Central Banker speeches, EU Leaders Summits
8:30am - GDP
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
8:30am - Durable Goods
8:30am - Pending Home Sales
Friday
All Day - Fed Governor speeches
8:30am - PCE
10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment
The earnings calendar is light this week but we do hear from KB Homes, Micron and Nike:
Earnings (with expected moves):
Monday
After-hours: KBH 8%
Tuesday
Pre-market: CCL 6.5%
After-hours: FDX 7.4%, BB 12%
Wednesday
After-hours: MU 8.5%
Thursday
After-hours: NKE 7.5%
Again, a lot of this week’s early action depends on news out of the Middle East, but for now it appears that from the US side of things it was a limited operation. We’ll see if any trends emerge as post expiry weeks can see some volatility. And as a constant reminder, we continue to get closer to to the end of the 90 day tariff pause without many details as far as new trade deals go. Expect that news flow to begin to pick up again very soon.
We’ve got a great week of content, stay tuned and get those questions in for the shows.
