The Week Ahead

Traders are expecting significantly lower volatility this week compared to the past three weeks. With both the earnings and economic calendars relatively light—and a shortened four-day trading week following a three-day weekend—implied volatilities in options have dropped to some of their lowest levels of 2025.

Below are the expected moves for the week based on Friday’s close. Notably, the SPX/SPY is pricing in just a 1% implied move:

Expected Moves for the Week:

• SPY/SPX: 1.0%

• QQQ: 1.3%

• IWM: 1.5%

• USO: 2.5%

• TLT: 1.2%

• GLD: 1.5%

The relatively small expected moves (equity indices) are partly due to traders compressing option premiums on Friday ahead of the long weekend. However, it also reflects the market’s resilience in shaking off recent negative headlines and pushing higher to test prior closing highs.

If stocks can steadily break above those highs early in the week, volatility may compress further. On the other hand, if uncertainty arises—whether from headlines or intraday swings—implied volatility could rebound a tad. However, unless the S&P 500 threatens the 6000 level again, we’re likely in for a period of low volatility in both options and daily moves until NVIDIA reports earnings in late February. This assumes a relatively calm news cycle which is unlikely, but it also reflects recent market action showing traders have been quick to buy news induced sell-offs.

Though the earnings calendar slows this week, several notable reports are still on deck, including Alibaba, Walmart, and Carvana. Here’s a look at key earnings and expected moves:

• Tuesday

  • Pre-market: BIDU 7.3%

  • After hours: OXY 4.6%, TOL 6.1%, ANET 10.3%

• Wednesday

  • Pre-market: ETSY 10.6%
    After hours: CVNA 13%

• Thursday

  • Pre-market: BABA 8.2%, WMT 4.8%, W 12%

  • After hours: MELI 7.6%, RIVN 13%, NEM 6.5%

On the economic data and events calendar we get a lot of central banker speeches this week, both from FOMC and ECB, the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and S&P Global PMI on Friday

• Wednesday

  • 2pm FOMC Minutes

• Thursday

  • 8:30am Initial Jobless Claims

• Friday

  • 10am Existing Home Sales

  • 10am UM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)

As a reminder, if the SPX is able to get to new highs it may run into some resistance / overhead supply at about the 6150-6175 level due to some large options positioning that resides at those strikes. Above that area the market has room to grind higher, and depending on the NVDA reaction in late Feb (which often serves as a market wide vibe check) we could begin to see some upside volatility and some parabolic moves in individual tickers. That often comes with a stocks up / VIX up signals but also skew indices start to go crazy. Currently, the CBOE skew index is high, but not quite to some of the historic readings we saw during the December and January rallies. We’ll update if those signs of upside call buying mania start to appear.

For now the 6k level in SPX to the downside remains key support and 6175 to the upside, potential resistance. We’ve got some great content coming this week so stay tuned and subscribe.

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