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The Winning Streak Continues for SPX
RiskReversal Recap: May 2, 2025
RiskReversal Media
May 02, 2025
MARKET WRAP
A stronger-than-expected jobs report and renewed hopes for trade negotiations with China pushed stocks higher again, capping off a strong week and extending the SPX’s streak of positive closes. The market shrugged off initial declines on earnings from both Apple and Amazon—AMZN even reversed course to close in the green. The market has erased the entire decline since the infamous Rose Garden tariff reveal. On the day: SPX +1.5%, QQQ +1.6% and IWM +2.2%. The small caps outperforming was despite the fact yields ticked higher for the second straight day. The 10Y yield is now back above 4.3%. Gold stabilized today, Oil declined. DXY closed right near $100.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy Adami welcomes Stuart Sopp, CEO of Current, to discuss the job market, recession fears, China, a weakening dollar, delinquency rates and gold repatriation.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 Has Longest Winning Streak in 20 Years (CNBC)
What’s Driving the Breathtaking Stock Rally? (WSJ)
China Hints at Possible Thaw With US in Evaluating Trade Talks (Bloomberg)
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update (FactSet)
Earnings show one tech segment starting to feel the tariff pinch fastest (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The S&P 500 has now logged its ninth straight day of gains, marking its longest winning streak since November 2004. Still, as noted yesterday, we may be in a temporary "quiet" phase where earnings and economic data haven’t yet reflected potential underlying damage, and only a month into a 90 day pause on the tariff front. While earnings have held up so far, more companies are sounding cautious. It could be that sentiment has soured more than actual behavior... or that the real impact of changing behavior simply hasn’t shown up yet. That may be true of consumers as well. We’ll find out soon enough.
In the meantime, with the VIX now in the low 20s—down from levels twice as high just weeks ago—the market may be providing a window to reassess positioning. It could be a good moment to consider some hedges, or reposition into quality. Ideally, the cost of those hedges buys flexibility: protection on the downside and the ability to buy lower, without materially capping upside if the rally continues.
We’ll be back this Sunday with a preview of next week’s catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Supply Chain Shocks, Fed Moves & America’s Economic Crossroads
Guy Adami welcomes Stuart Sopp, CEO of Current, to discuss the significant changes in the market since their last conversation in December. |
They explore the increase in market volatility observed since January and the impact on various sectors, especially exchanges that benefit from high volatility. The conversation delves into the effects of stockpiling before important events like tax refund season, which is crucial for Current’s customers who rely heavily on affordable banking services. Stuart highlights rising stress indicators such as increasing delinquency rates and reduced discretionary spending on items like gas and fast food. The duo discusses the job market, potential recession risks, and the impacts of ongoing trade tensions with China. They also analyze the U.S. dollar's weakening position and the potential ramifications on global markets, as well as the controversial handling of the gold repatriation by various countries.
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