- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Traders Shake Off Hot PPI
Traders Shake Off Hot PPI
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, August 14th
RiskReversal Media
August 14, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks sold off this morning on a much hotter-than-expected PPI print but largely recovered before the close. The sell-off wasn’t particularly sharp, and Sept rate cut odds didn’t change much, but yields were higher and it takes a a bit of the bloom off of the CPI optimism. A bit of a change from yesterday as small caps sold off the hardest on PPI while some of the megacaps held steady and powered the market backed to unched. On the day: SPX unched, QQQ unched, IWM -1.2%
Elsewhere as mentioned, yields were higher with the US10YY back to 4.29%, Oil bounced +2%. Gold was slightly lower, the dollar slightly higher. The VIX edged higher towards 15.
Notable Gainers: AMZN +2.8%, NFLX +2.2%, INTC +7.4%, MCD +1.3%, JPM +1.3% , LLY +3.6%
Notable Losers: DE -6.8%, HD -1.7%, CRM -1.4%, TTD -6.6%, MSTR -4.4%, SHOP -3.5%
After hours: AMAT is lower by -11% following its earnings release. UNH is up +7% on Berkshire disclosing a new stake (the stock has been higher the past week on Berkshire rumors)
MRKT Call: Liz joins to talk today’s very hot PPI, the surprise divergence from Tuesday’s CPI, and what that means for PCE and the FOMC. Carter then joins for a special quadbox, charting SPY, RSP, DJIA, TSLA and more.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy Adami on Scott Bessent’s recent remarks, Federal Reserve policies conflicting job data and interest rate cuts, the politicization of economic data, historical inflation patterns, and the challenges faced by the Fed.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks trade marginally lower after hotter-than-expected inflation data (CNBC)
US Producer Prices Rise by Most in Three Years on Services (Bloomberg)
Bessent Says He’s Not Pushing Fed Cuts, Just Touting Models (Bloomberg)
Economist Sumerlin confirms he’s in the running for Fed chair, backs big interest rate cut (CNBC)
Americans’ 401(k)s Are More Tied to Stocks Than Ever (WSJ)
Behind Wall Street’s Abrupt Flip on Crypto (NYTimes)
DeepSeek’s next AI model delayed by attempt to use Chinese chips (Financial Times)
WHAT’S NEXT?
While a September rate cut still appears likely, today’s data did two things: it reduced the odds of anything larger than 25 bps, and it rekindled concerns that the Fed could be easing into an inflation backdrop that’s still far from settled. Treasury yields pushed higher across the curve, with rate-sensitive equities that had benefitted the most the past two days taking the brunt of the move today. IWM was down more than -2% at its lows before buyers stepped in, keeping its August run largely intact.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the calendar features NY Manufacturing and Retail Sales before the open, as well as U.S.–Russia talks on Ukraine. It’s also monthly options expiration, which could lead to pinning action into the close, something even more common with volatility this low. SPX’s implied move for tomorrow is one of the smallest in months, at ± 0.4%.
Friday, August 15th
8:30am - Retail Sales (0.5%)
8:30am - NY Manufacturing (0)
9:15am - Industrial Production (0)
10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim (62)
4pm - Monthly Options Expiry
SPX Expected Move: 0.4%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: PPI Comes In Hot, Hot, Hot
Liz joins to talk today’s very hot PPI, the surprise divergence from Tuesday’s CPI, and what that means for PCE and the FOMC. Carter then joins for a special quadbox, charting SPY, RSP, DJIA, TSLA and more.
SoFi Report: PPI / Services spike, the importance of diversification at market highs given current concentration (gains from earnings are more durable than multiple expansion, August/Sept seasonality) cyclical and defensives as diversification plays.
Analysis - SPX, US10YY, TLT, SPY, RSP, DJIA, UNH, TSLA
Your Questions:
Carter Evans - Maybe talk about the rally in UNH from $235 (a bottom maybe) on 8/1 to $274 today
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Guy Adami is a Vibe
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dive into the recent remarks of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Federal Reserve policies, analyzing conflicting viewpoints on job data and interest rate cuts. The conversation highlights concerns about politicization of economic data, historical inflation patterns, and the challenges faced by the Fed.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi.
The $16 Billion Scam Surge: Gen Z’s Biggest Money Trap Exposed!
Generation Money hosts Dan Nathan and Guy discuss the surge in online scams with guest Mohamed Beyruti, an accountant from College of Staten Island. They cover fake E‑ZPass toll texts, tech-support gift card grifts, and a Deloitte finding that Gen Z is 3x more likely to be scammed amid notification overload and decision fatigue. In a Red Flag Roundtable, they dissect bogus $156K job offers, USPS “update address” texts, and stock pump links, leaning on Norton Genie to spot hidden red flags.
Learn more about MoneyLion: https://www.moneylion.com/
Learn more about Norton: https://us.norton.com/
